Model Accuracy
Full transparency. Every prediction tracked and settled.
Predictions
57.5%
Hit Rate
n = 669 (105 pending)
Steam Moves
51.1%
Hit Rate
n = 882
Props
—
Hit Rate
n = 0
Accumulators
22.9%
Leg Accuracy
n = 329 (35 pending)
Predicted probability vs actual win rate — a well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal
ECE
2.5%
Accuracy breakdown by prediction model type
| Model | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble | 632 | 361 | 57.1% | 1.77 | +-2.3pp |
| xG Ensemble | 29 | 20 | 69% | 1.65 | +2.3pp |
| NBA Combined | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1.77 | +9.4pp |
Three AI models compete daily — points for correct result (+3), scoreline (+5), BTTS (+1)
Claude
189
total points
Hit Rate
50%
Avg Pts
2.7
Scorelines
9
Grok
154
total points
Hit Rate
42.9%
Avg Pts
2.2
Scorelines
5
GPT-5
139
total points
Hit Rate
36.2%
Avg Pts
2.0
Scorelines
5
Hit rate breakdown across leagues
Hit rate across match result, BTTS, and over/under markets
| Market | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | 278 | 143 | 51.4% | 1.81 | +2.6pp |
| Match Result | 233 | 144 | 61.8% | 1.69 | +-6.5pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 158 | 98 | 62% | 1.79 | +-3.2pp |
Hit rate when 3+ bookmakers move in the same direction
50% baseline = coin flip · 60%+ = actionable signal
Individual leg hit rate and ROI across all settled accumulators
Settled
329
Won
24
Lost
305
Acca Win Rate
7%
Leg Accuracy
22.9%
ROI
-69.2%
303 of 1321 individual legs correct
Staked: 3290u · Returns: 1013.4u · P&L: -2276.6u
By Tier
| Tier | Settled | Won | Lost | Win Rate | Leg Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet of the Day | 50 | 14 | 36 | 28% | 19.6% | -43.8% |
| Accumulator | 60 | 4 | 56 | 6.7% | 29.4% | -38.2% |
| Big Odds Acca | 51 | 0 | 51 | 0% | 20.4% | -100% |
| BTTS | 36 | 2 | 34 | 5.6% | 24.7% | -75% |
| Win Treble | 32 | 2 | 30 | 6.3% | 31.5% | -57.7% |
| Over 2.5 Treble | 24 | 2 | 22 | 8.3% | 31.6% | -43.3% |
| Win & BTTS | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
| Anytime Goalscorer | 39 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
| Card Betting | 32 | 0 | 32 | 0% | 0% | -100% |
Matches where the bookmaker favourite lost — and our model warned you
Brentford v Crystal Palace
17 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 2-2
bet365
60%
wagerbase
48%
Tottenham v Leeds
11 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-1
bet365
56%
wagerbase
28%
Burnley v Aston Villa
10 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 2-2
bet365
63%
wagerbase
50%
Everton v Man City
4 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 3-3
bet365
67%
wagerbase
49%
Chelsea v Nottm Forest
4 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-3
bet365
58%
wagerbase
48%
Norwich v Swansea
25 AprChampionshipFT: 1-1
bet365
60%
wagerbase
39%
St Mirren v Livingston
25 AprScottish-PremiershipFT: 0-2
bet365
57%
wagerbase
46%
Leicester v Millwall
24 AprChampionshipFT: 1-1
bet365
60%
wagerbase
37%
Favourites where bet365 implied ≥ 55% but our model said < 50% — and the favourite lost
All predictions, signals and picks — pending and settled
| Time | Type | Match / Entity | Detail | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May 19:00 | Pred | Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano | BTTS Yes @ 1.91 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 18:45 | Pred | AC Milan v Cagliari | Home Win @ 1.29 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 18:45 | Pred | AC Milan v Cagliari | BTTS Yes @ 2.20 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 16:00 | Pred | Napoli v Udinese | BTTS Yes @ 2.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 15:00 | Pred | Tottenham v Everton | Draw @ 3.50 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 15:00 | Pred | Man City v Aston Villa | Home Win @ 1.33 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 15:00 | Pred | Crystal Palace v Arsenal | BTTS Yes @ 1.91 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 13:00 | Pred | Parma v Sassuolo | Draw @ 3.25 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Taisei Miyashiro (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.90 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Estanis Pedrola (LAS) | sot_under 0.5 @ 2.11 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Enrique Clemente (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Mawuli Mensah (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 19.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Hugo Pinilla (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Toni Moya (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Estanis Pedrola (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 7.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Kirian Rodríguez (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 7.50 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Lorenzo Amatucci (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Jesé Rodríguez (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Marcos Cuenca (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 8.50 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Pejiño (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Aleksandar Radovanović (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 6.50 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Martín Aguirregabiria (ZAR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.08 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Dani Gómez (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Kenan Kodro (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.33 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Jawad El Yamiq (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Yussif Saidu (ZAR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | PENDING | — |
| 24 May 12:00 | Props | Jonathan Viera (LAS) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.30 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 19:00 | Pred | Mallorca v Real Oviedo | Over 2.5 @ 1.88 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 19:00 | Pred | Real Madrid v Athletic Club | Home Win @ 1.48 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 19:00 | Pred | Mallorca v Real Oviedo | BTTS Yes @ 2.00 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 19:00 | Pred | CD Alaves v Rayo Vallecano | Draw @ 3.40 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 18:45 | Pred | Lazio v Pisa | BTTS Yes @ 1.91 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 18:45 | Pred | Lazio v Pisa | Home Win @ 1.55 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 18:00 | Pred | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | Home Win @ 1.33 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 14:30 | Pred | Hull v Middlesbrough | BTTS Yes @ 1.91 | PENDING | — |
| 23 May 14:00 | Pred | Hull v Southampton | BTTS Yes @ 2.10 | PENDING | — |
| 22 May 19:00 | Pred | Lens v Nice | BTTS Yes @ 1.80 | PENDING | — |
| 22 May 19:00 | Pred | Lens v Nice | Home Win @ 1.67 | PENDING | — |
| 22 May 12:00 | Props | Giulio Maggiore (BAR) | Anytime Scorer @ 8.50 | PENDING | — |
| 22 May 12:00 | Props | Emanuele Rao (BAR) | Anytime Scorer @ 5.25 | PENDING | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Steam | Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart | Draw ↓ (3 books, Weak) | PENDING | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Vasilios Zagaritis (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.20 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Steven Berghuis (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 2.65 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Mike Eerdhuijzen (UTR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Ringo Meerveld (HEE) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Ángel Alarcón (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Aaron Zehnter (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Jorg Schreuders (GRO) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.85 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Oscar Gloukh (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 3.68 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Luuk Brouwers (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.64 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Sean Steur (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.73 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Rayane Bounida (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 3.53 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Sean Steur (AJA) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Mike Van der Hoorn (UTR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.30 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Sébastien Haller (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 6.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Yoann Cathline (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 7.50 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Youri Regeer (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.23 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Oliver Braude (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.16 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Tygo Land (GRO) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Marcus Linday (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.22 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Mika Godts (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 3.96 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Dylan Vente (HEE) | sot_over 0.5 @ 9.50 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Davy Klaassen (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.85 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Dani De Wit (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | David Min (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 9.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Souffian El Karouani (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Moritz Jenz (VFL) | To Be Carded @ 3.20 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Anton Gaaei (AJA) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Gjivai Zechiël (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Lovro Majer (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Mattias Svanberg (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Steven Berghuis (AJA) | sot_over 0.5 @ 9.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Sam Kersten (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.10 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Jacob Trenskow (HEE) | sot_over 0.5 @ 10.00 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Oscar Gloukh (AJA) | sot_over 0.5 @ 5.25 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Tika de Jonge (GRO) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.10 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Kasper Dolberg (AJA) | sot_over 0.5 @ 8.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Kasper Dolberg (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 2.96 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Wout Weghorst (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 2.79 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Mika Godts (AJA) | Anytime Scorer @ 2.90 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Luuk Brouwers (HEE) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Siebe Horemans (UTR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Dies Janse (GRO) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.16 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Nick Viergever (UTR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Thom van Bergen (GRO) | sot_over 0.5 @ 11.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Luca Oyen (HEE) | sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Moritz Jenz (VFL) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.13 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Adam Daghim (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Jorg Schreuders (GRO) | sot_over 0.5 @ 17.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Yannick Gerhardt (VFL) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Maas Willemsen (HEE) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.17 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Artem Stepanov (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 5.75 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Konstantinos Koulierakis (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.40 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Denis Vavro (VFL) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.41 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Lucas Rosa (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.25 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Christian Eriksen (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Youri Baas (AJA) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Dženan Pejčinović (VFL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 11.00 | LOST | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Adrian Blake (UTR) | sot_over 0.5 @ 6.50 | WON | — |
| 21 May 12:00 | Props | Travis Hernes (GRO) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.49 | WON | — |
We track everything. Good and bad. 1,880 data points across 5 products. Every prediction, every signal, every gap is logged and settled. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.