Model Accuracy
Full transparency. Every prediction tracked and settled.
Predictions
60%
Hit Rate
n = 300 (135 pending)
Steam Moves
59.1%
Hit Rate
n = 4970
Props
63.2%
Hit Rate
n = 9096
ROI: +19.9%
Accumulators
39%
Leg Accuracy
n = 125 (14 pending)
Predicted probability vs actual win rate — a well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal
ECE
4.4%
Accuracy breakdown by prediction model type
| Model | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble | 271 | 161 | 59.4% | 1.71 | +-3.8pp |
| xG Ensemble | 21 | 15 | 71.4% | 1.60 | +1.1pp |
| NBA Combined | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1.77 | +9.4pp |
Three AI models compete daily — points for correct result (+3), scoreline (+5), BTTS (+1)
Claude
189
total points
Hit Rate
50%
Avg Pts
2.7
Scorelines
9
Grok
154
total points
Hit Rate
42.9%
Avg Pts
2.2
Scorelines
5
GPT-5
139
total points
Hit Rate
36.2%
Avg Pts
2.0
Scorelines
5
Hit rate breakdown across leagues
Hit rate across match result, BTTS, and over/under markets
| Market | Settled | Wins | Hit Rate | Avg Odds | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | 127 | 78 | 61.4% | 1.65 | +-6.3pp |
| Both Teams To Score | 107 | 61 | 57% | 1.77 | +1.0pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 66 | 41 | 62.1% | 1.71 | +-3.8pp |
Hit rate when 3+ bookmakers move in the same direction
50% baseline = coin flip · 60%+ = actionable signal
Player prop picks targeting bookmaker pricing edges
Props target high-odds value bets (edge ≥ 3pp). Win rate is intentionally lower — profitability comes from large payouts on correct picks.
Settled
9096
Win Rate
63.2%
ROI
+19.9%
Avg Odds
3.11
| Market | Settled | W | L | Hit Rate | ROI | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| shots_under | 3197 | 2340 | 857 | 73% | 76% | +2430.87u |
| sot_under | 2517 | 1907 | 610 | 76% | 6% | +153.77u |
| assists_under | 1439 | 1228 | 211 | 85% | -1% | -9.44u |
| sot_over | 557 | 110 | 447 | 20% | -36% | -201.68u |
| Anytime Scorer | 485 | 44 | 441 | 9% | -42% | -202.24u |
| assists_over | 400 | 34 | 366 | 9% | -43% | -170.75u |
| Cards | 285 | 38 | 247 | 13% | -37% | -104.30u |
| Shots on Target O/U | 93 | 22 | 71 | 24% | -20% | -18.97u |
| shots_over | 77 | 22 | 55 | 29% | -52% | -39.83u |
| Assists O/U | 45 | 2 | 43 | 4% | -67% | -30.00u |
| Shots O/U | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | +0.68u |
Individual leg hit rate and ROI across all settled accumulators
Settled
125
Won
11
Lost
114
Acca Win Rate
9%
Leg Accuracy
39%
ROI
-47.8%
216 of 554 individual legs correct
Staked: 1250u · Returns: 652.2u · P&L: -597.8u
By Tier
| Tier | Settled | Won | Lost | Win Rate | Leg Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker Double | 27 | 4 | 23 | 14.8% | 38.5% | -65.7% |
| Daily Acca | 33 | 4 | 29 | 12.1% | 45.8% | +12.3% |
| Mega Acca | 28 | 0 | 28 | 0% | 33.1% | -100% |
| BTTS Acca | 13 | 1 | 12 | 7.7% | 33.9% | -58.7% |
| Win Treble | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15.4% | 49.1% | +4.1% |
| Over 2.5 Acca | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0% | 35% | -100% |
Matches where the bookmaker favourite lost — and our model warned you
Motherwell v Falkirk F.C.
4 AprScottish-PremiershipFT: 2-3
bet365
58%
wagerbase
48%
Middlesbrough v Millwall
3 AprChampionshipFT: 1-2
bet365
57%
wagerbase
40%
Fiorentina v Inter Milan
22 MarSerie-AFT: 1-1
bet365
60%
wagerbase
50%
Estoril v Rio Ave FC
22 MarPrimeira-LigaFT: 1-2
bet365
56%
wagerbase
50%
NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen
22 MarEredivisieFT: 2-2
bet365
59%
wagerbase
46%
Ipswich Town v Millwall
21 MarChampionshipFT: 1-1
bet365
60%
wagerbase
50%
AS Roma v Bologna
19 MarEuropa-LeagueFT: 3-4
bet365
58%
wagerbase
35%
Rayo Vallecano v Samsunspor
19 MarEuropa-Conference-LeagueFT: 0-1
bet365
61%
wagerbase
39%
Favourites where bet365 implied ≥ 55% but our model said < 50% — and the favourite lost
All predictions, signals and picks — pending and settled
| Time | Type | Match / Entity | Detail | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Manchester United v Leeds United | Over 2.5 @ 1.66 | PENDING | — |
| 13 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Manchester United v Leeds United | BTTS Yes @ 1.71 | PENDING | — |
| 13 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Levante v Getafe | Draw @ 3.10 | PENDING | — |
| 13 Apr 18:45 | Pred | Fiorentina v Lazio | Over 2.5 @ 2.15 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 19:30 | Pred | Estoril v FC Porto | Away Win @ 1.36 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 19:30 | Pred | Estoril v FC Porto | Over 2.5 @ 1.59 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal | Over 2.5 @ 1.81 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 18:45 | Pred | Como v Inter Milan | Over 2.5 @ 1.86 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 17:30 | Pred | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg | Over 2.5 @ 1.85 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 17:30 | Pred | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg | BTTS Yes @ 1.67 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 17:00 | Pred | Braga v Arouca | Over 2.5 @ 1.65 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 17:00 | Pred | Braga v Arouca | BTTS Yes @ 1.88 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 17:00 | Pred | Braga v Arouca | Home Win @ 1.37 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Celta Vigo v Oviedo | Over 2.5 @ 1.92 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Celta Vigo v Oviedo | Home Win @ 1.63 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Celta Vigo v Oviedo | BTTS Yes @ 1.91 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 16:00 | Pred | Bologna v Lecce | BTTS Yes @ 2.06 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 15:30 | Pred | VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV | BTTS Yes @ 1.61 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 15:30 | Pred | VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV | Home Win @ 1.45 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 15:30 | Pred | Chelsea v Manchester City | Over 2.5 @ 1.53 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 15:15 | Pred | Brest v Strasbourg | Over 2.5 @ 1.82 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 14:45 | Pred | AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen | Over 2.5 @ 1.50 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 14:30 | Pred | Alverca v Casa Pia | Over 2.5 @ 2.04 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 14:30 | Pred | Alverca v Casa Pia | Home Win @ 2.01 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 14:30 | Pred | Alverca v Casa Pia | BTTS Yes @ 1.85 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 14:15 | Pred | Mallorca v Rayo Vallecano | Over 2.5 @ 2.15 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 13:30 | Pred | 1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen | Over 2.5 @ 1.71 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 13:00 | Pred | Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa | Over 2.5 @ 1.89 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 13:00 | Pred | Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | BTTS Yes @ 1.58 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 12:30 | Pred | FC Zwolle v Excelsior | Over 2.5 @ 1.59 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 12:00 | Pred | CA Osasuna v Real Betis | Over 2.5 @ 1.86 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 12:00 | Pred | CA Osasuna v Real Betis | BTTS Yes @ 1.66 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 11:30 | Pred | Torku Konyaspor v Fatih Karagümrük | Over 2.5 @ 1.93 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 11:00 | Pred | Birmingham City v Wrexham AFC | BTTS Yes @ 1.63 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 11:00 | Pred | Birmingham City v Wrexham AFC | Over 2.5 @ 1.72 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 10:30 | Pred | Genoa v Sassuolo | Over 2.5 @ 2.16 | PENDING | — |
| 12 Apr 10:15 | Pred | Fortuna Sittard v NAC Breda | Over 2.5 @ 1.72 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 19:05 | Pred | Rennes v Angers | Over 2.5 @ 1.63 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 19:05 | Pred | Rennes v Angers | Home Win @ 1.38 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Sevilla v Atlético Madrid | Over 2.5 @ 1.92 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 18:45 | Pred | Atalanta BC v Juventus | Over 2.5 @ 1.83 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 18:00 | Pred | Groningen v Go Ahead Eagles | Over 2.5 @ 1.62 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 18:00 | Pred | Groningen v Go Ahead Eagles | Home Win @ 1.73 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 17:00 | Pred | Auxerre v Nantes | BTTS Yes @ 1.98 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 17:00 | Pred | Santa Clara v Rio Ave FC | Over 2.5 @ 2.32 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:45 | Pred | Sparta Rotterdam v PSV Eindhoven | Over 2.5 @ 1.40 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Barcelona v Espanyol | BTTS Yes @ 1.62 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Liverpool v Fulham | Over 2.5 @ 1.53 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:30 | Pred | FC St. Pauli v Bayern Munich | Away Win @ 1.32 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:30 | Pred | Barcelona v Espanyol | Home Win @ 1.21 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:00 | Pred | AC Milan v Udinese | BTTS Yes @ 2.08 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:00 | Pred | AC Milan v Udinese | Home Win @ 1.37 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 16:00 | Pred | AC Milan v Udinese | Over 2.5 @ 1.80 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 14:30 | Pred | FC Utrecht v SC Telstar | Over 2.5 @ 1.58 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 14:15 | Pred | Elche CF v Valencia | Over 2.5 @ 2.05 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 14:00 | Pred | Kilmarnock v Dundee FC | BTTS Yes @ 1.62 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 14:00 | Pred | Celtic v St Mirren | Home Win @ 1.24 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 14:00 | Pred | Brentford v Everton | Over 2.5 @ 1.96 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 13:30 | Pred | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | Home Win @ 1.52 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 13:30 | Pred | 1. FC Heidenheim v Union Berlin | Over 2.5 @ 1.85 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 13:00 | Pred | Cagliari v Cremonese | BTTS Yes @ 1.93 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 13:00 | Pred | Torino v Hellas Verona | Over 2.5 @ 2.39 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 12:00 | Pred | Real Sociedad v Alavés | BTTS Yes @ 1.92 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 12:00 | Pred | Real Sociedad v Alavés | Over 2.5 @ 2.04 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 11:30 | Pred | Arsenal v Bournemouth | Home Win @ 1.37 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 11:30 | Pred | Arsenal v Bournemouth | Over 2.5 @ 1.64 | PENDING | — |
| 11 Apr 11:30 | Pred | Coventry City v Sheffield Wednesday | BTTS Yes @ 2.07 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:45 | Pred | Famalicão v Moreirense FC | Over 2.5 @ 1.98 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:45 | Pred | Famalicão v Moreirense FC | Home Win @ 1.61 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:45 | Pred | Famalicão v Moreirense FC | BTTS Yes @ 1.98 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:05 | Pred | Marseille v Metz | Home Win @ 1.26 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:05 | Pred | Marseille v Metz | Over 2.5 @ 1.44 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:00 | Pred | Real Madrid v Girona | Home Win @ 1.22 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:00 | Pred | West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers | BTTS Yes @ 1.73 | PENDING | — |
| 10 Apr 19:00 | Pred | West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers | Over 2.5 @ 1.84 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Mohamed Salah (LIV) | sot_over 1.5 @ 4.10 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Achraf Hakimi (PAR) | assists_over 0.5 @ 5.20 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Curtis Jones (LIV) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.70 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Pablo Barrios (ATL) | assists_over 0.5 @ 9.00 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PAR) | Anytime Scorer @ 3.05 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Achraf Hakimi (PAR) | sot_under 1.5 @ 1.09 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Marcus Rashford (BAR) | assists_under 0.5 @ 1.37 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Marcus Rashford (BAR) | sot_under 1.5 @ 1.38 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Marcos Llorente (ATL) | Anytime Scorer @ 13.00 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Pablo Barrios (ATL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 4.00 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) | sot_over 0.5 @ 2.05 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Désiré Doué (PAR) | assists_under 0.5 @ 1.29 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Nuno Mendes (PAR) | assists_under 0.5 @ 1.16 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Marquinhos (PAR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.25 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Désiré Doué (PAR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 3.05 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Florian Wirtz (LIV) | sot_over 1.5 @ 7.50 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Andrew Robertson (LIV) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.14 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Dani Olmo (BAR) | sot_under 0.5 @ 2.11 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Dávid Hancko (ATL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 6.00 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Giuliano Simeone (ATL) | assists_under 0.5 @ 1.16 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Johnny Cardoso (ATL) | sot_over 0.5 @ 5.80 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Julián Alvarez (ATL) | assists_over 0.5 @ 5.75 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Alexis Mac Allister (LIV) | sot_over 0.5 @ 3.20 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) | Anytime Scorer @ 4.40 | PENDING | — |
| 08 Apr 12:00 | Props | Jeremie Frimpong (LIV) | sot_under 0.5 @ 1.26 | PENDING | — |
We track everything. Good and bad. 14,491 data points across 5 products. Every prediction, every signal, every gap is logged and settled. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.