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Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Model Accuracy

Football Prediction Track Record & Accuracy Stats

Full transparency. Every prediction tracked and settled.

1,880 data points tracked · 5 products · Updated every 60s

Predictions

57.5%

Hit Rate

n = 669 (105 pending)

Steam Moves

51.1%

Hit Rate

n = 882

Props

—

Hit Rate

n = 0

Accumulators

22.9%

Leg Accuracy

n = 329 (35 pending)

Calibration

Predicted probability vs actual win rate — a well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal

ECE

2.5%

0%25%50%75%100%perfect16%30-40%n=3254%50-60%n=41966%60-70%n=17688%70-80%n=4080-90%n=2Predicted ProbabilityActual Win Rate
Actual win rate
Predicted (expected)
Perfect calibration

Model Comparison

Accuracy breakdown by prediction model type

ModelSettledWinsHit RateAvg OddsAvg Edge
Ensemble63236157.1%1.77+-2.3pp
xG Ensemble292069%1.65+2.3pp
NBA Combined7342.9%1.77+9.4pp

Model Wars

209 settled

Three AI models compete daily — points for correct result (+3), scoreline (+5), BTTS (+1)

LEADER

Claude

189

total points

Hit Rate

50%

Avg Pts

2.7

Scorelines

9

Grok

154

total points

Hit Rate

42.9%

Avg Pts

2.2

Scorelines

5

GPT-5

139

total points

Hit Rate

36.2%

Avg Pts

2.0

Scorelines

5

View full Model Wars →

Predictions by League

Hit rate breakdown across leagues

La-Liga
55%
55/100
Serie-A
40%
36/90
Primeira-Liga
60.3%
44/73
Premier-League
55.9%
33/59
Bundesliga
78%
46/59
Championship
60%
33/55
Ligue-1
58%
29/50
Eredivisie
52.3%
23/44
Super-Lig
50%
20/40
Champions-League
63.6%
14/22
Scottish-Premiership
75%
15/20
Fa-Cup
70.6%
12/17

Predictions by Market

Hit rate across match result, BTTS, and over/under markets

MarketSettledWinsHit RateAvg OddsAvg Edge
Both Teams To Score27814351.4%1.81+2.6pp
Match Result23314461.8%1.69+-6.5pp
Over/Under 2.51589862%1.79+-3.2pp

Steam Moves by Signal Strength

Hit rate when 3+ bookmakers move in the same direction

Strong
53.5%
76/142
Moderate
51.8%
174/336
Early
48.8%
103/211
Weak
50.8%
98/193

50% baseline = coin flip · 60%+ = actionable signal

Accumulator Accuracy

Individual leg hit rate and ROI across all settled accumulators

Settled

329

Won

24

Lost

305

Acca Win Rate

7%

Leg Accuracy

22.9%

ROI

-69.2%

303 of 1321 individual legs correct

Staked: 3290u · Returns: 1013.4u · P&L: -2276.6u

By Tier

TierSettledWonLostWin RateLeg AccuracyROI
Bet of the Day50143628%19.6%-43.8%
Accumulator604566.7%29.4%-38.2%
Big Odds Acca510510%20.4%-100%
BTTS362345.6%24.7%-75%
Win Treble322306.3%31.5%-57.7%
Over 2.5 Treble242228.3%31.6%-43.3%
Win & BTTS5050%0%-100%
Anytime Goalscorer390390%0%-100%
Card Betting320320%0%-100%

Dodged Bullets

20 saved

Matches where the bookmaker favourite lost — and our model warned you

Brentford v Crystal Palace

17 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 2-2

bet365

60%

vs

wagerbase

48%

SAVED

Tottenham v Leeds

11 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-1

bet365

56%

vs

wagerbase

28%

SAVED

Burnley v Aston Villa

10 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 2-2

bet365

63%

vs

wagerbase

50%

SAVED

Everton v Man City

4 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 3-3

bet365

67%

vs

wagerbase

49%

SAVED

Chelsea v Nottm Forest

4 MayPremier-LeagueFT: 1-3

bet365

58%

vs

wagerbase

48%

SAVED

Norwich v Swansea

25 AprChampionshipFT: 1-1

bet365

60%

vs

wagerbase

39%

SAVED

St Mirren v Livingston

25 AprScottish-PremiershipFT: 0-2

bet365

57%

vs

wagerbase

46%

SAVED

Leicester v Millwall

24 AprChampionshipFT: 1-1

bet365

60%

vs

wagerbase

37%

SAVED

Favourites where bet365 implied ≥ 55% but our model said < 50% — and the favourite lost

Activity Feed

383 items

All predictions, signals and picks — pending and settled

TimeTypeMatch / EntityDetailStatusP&L
27 May 19:00PredCrystal Palace v Rayo VallecanoBTTS Yes @ 1.91PENDING—
24 May 18:45PredAC Milan v CagliariHome Win @ 1.29PENDING—
24 May 18:45PredAC Milan v CagliariBTTS Yes @ 2.20PENDING—
24 May 16:00PredNapoli v UdineseBTTS Yes @ 2.00PENDING—
24 May 15:00PredTottenham v EvertonDraw @ 3.50PENDING—
24 May 15:00PredMan City v Aston VillaHome Win @ 1.33PENDING—
24 May 15:00PredCrystal Palace v ArsenalBTTS Yes @ 1.91PENDING—
24 May 13:00PredParma v SassuoloDraw @ 3.25PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsTaisei Miyashiro (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.90PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsEstanis Pedrola (LAS)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.11PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsEnrique Clemente (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsMawuli Mensah (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 19.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsHugo Pinilla (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsToni Moya (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsEstanis Pedrola (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 7.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsKirian Rodríguez (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 7.50PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsLorenzo Amatucci (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsJesé Rodríguez (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsMarcos Cuenca (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 8.50PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsPejiño (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsAleksandar Radovanović (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 6.50PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsMartín Aguirregabiria (ZAR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.08PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsDani Gómez (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsKenan Kodro (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 4.33PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsJawad El Yamiq (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsYussif Saidu (ZAR)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00PENDING—
24 May 12:00PropsJonathan Viera (LAS)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.30PENDING—
23 May 19:00PredMallorca v Real OviedoOver 2.5 @ 1.88PENDING—
23 May 19:00PredReal Madrid v Athletic ClubHome Win @ 1.48PENDING—
23 May 19:00PredMallorca v Real OviedoBTTS Yes @ 2.00PENDING—
23 May 19:00PredCD Alaves v Rayo VallecanoDraw @ 3.40PENDING—
23 May 18:45PredLazio v PisaBTTS Yes @ 1.91PENDING—
23 May 18:45PredLazio v PisaHome Win @ 1.55PENDING—
23 May 18:00PredBayern Munich v VfB StuttgartHome Win @ 1.33PENDING—
23 May 14:30PredHull v MiddlesbroughBTTS Yes @ 1.91PENDING—
23 May 14:00PredHull v SouthamptonBTTS Yes @ 2.10PENDING—
22 May 19:00PredLens v NiceBTTS Yes @ 1.80PENDING—
22 May 19:00PredLens v NiceHome Win @ 1.67PENDING—
22 May 12:00PropsGiulio Maggiore (BAR)Anytime Scorer @ 8.50PENDING—
22 May 12:00PropsEmanuele Rao (BAR)Anytime Scorer @ 5.25PENDING—
21 May 12:00SteamBayern Munich vs VfB StuttgartDraw ↓ (3 books, Weak)PENDING—
21 May 12:00PropsVasilios Zagaritis (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.20WON—
21 May 12:00PropsSteven Berghuis (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.65WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMike Eerdhuijzen (UTR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27WON—
21 May 12:00PropsRingo Meerveld (HEE)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsÁngel Alarcón (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 4.20LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsAaron Zehnter (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsJorg Schreuders (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.85WON—
21 May 12:00PropsOscar Gloukh (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 3.68WON—
21 May 12:00PropsLuuk Brouwers (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.64WON—
21 May 12:00PropsSean Steur (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.73WON—
21 May 12:00PropsRayane Bounida (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 3.53WON—
21 May 12:00PropsSean Steur (AJA)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsMike Van der Hoorn (UTR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.30LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsSébastien Haller (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 6.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsYoann Cathline (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 7.50WON—
21 May 12:00PropsYouri Regeer (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.23WON—
21 May 12:00PropsOliver Braude (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.16WON—
21 May 12:00PropsTygo Land (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMarcus Linday (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.22WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMika Godts (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 3.96LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsDylan Vente (HEE)sot_over 0.5 @ 9.50WON—
21 May 12:00PropsDavy Klaassen (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.85LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsDani De Wit (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsDavid Min (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 9.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsSouffian El Karouani (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMoritz Jenz (VFL)To Be Carded @ 3.20LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsAnton Gaaei (AJA)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsGjivai Zechiël (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsLovro Majer (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 15.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsMattias Svanberg (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsSteven Berghuis (AJA)sot_over 0.5 @ 9.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsSam Kersten (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.10WON—
21 May 12:00PropsJacob Trenskow (HEE)sot_over 0.5 @ 10.00WON—
21 May 12:00PropsOscar Gloukh (AJA)sot_over 0.5 @ 5.25LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsTika de Jonge (GRO)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.10LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsKasper Dolberg (AJA)sot_over 0.5 @ 8.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsKasper Dolberg (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.96WON—
21 May 12:00PropsWout Weghorst (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 2.79LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsMika Godts (AJA)Anytime Scorer @ 2.90LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsLuuk Brouwers (HEE)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsSiebe Horemans (UTR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27WON—
21 May 12:00PropsDies Janse (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.16WON—
21 May 12:00PropsNick Viergever (UTR)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.27WON—
21 May 12:00PropsThom van Bergen (GRO)sot_over 0.5 @ 11.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsLuca Oyen (HEE)sot_over 0.5 @ 23.00WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMoritz Jenz (VFL)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.13WON—
21 May 12:00PropsAdam Daghim (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 12.00WON—
21 May 12:00PropsJorg Schreuders (GRO)sot_over 0.5 @ 17.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsYannick Gerhardt (VFL)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37WON—
21 May 12:00PropsMaas Willemsen (HEE)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.17WON—
21 May 12:00PropsArtem Stepanov (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 5.75WON—
21 May 12:00PropsKonstantinos Koulierakis (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 3.40LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsDenis Vavro (VFL)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.41WON—
21 May 12:00PropsLucas Rosa (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.25WON—
21 May 12:00PropsChristian Eriksen (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 13.00WON—
21 May 12:00PropsYouri Baas (AJA)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.37WON—
21 May 12:00PropsDženan Pejčinović (VFL)sot_over 0.5 @ 11.00LOST—
21 May 12:00PropsAdrian Blake (UTR)sot_over 0.5 @ 6.50WON—
21 May 12:00PropsTravis Hernes (GRO)sot_under 0.5 @ 1.49WON—

We track everything. Good and bad. 1,880 data points across 5 products. Every prediction, every signal, every gap is logged and settled. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.

Predictions →Steam Moves →Edge Picks →Model Wars →