Frequently Asked Questions

Odds Comparison is a tool we built to track the difference between traditional bookmaker odds (60+ global sportsbooks) and prediction market prices on Polymarket. When a bookmaker prices a football match at 60% implied probability but Polymarket traders price the same outcome at 52%, that 8-point difference is the “gap.” We surface these gaps in real time so you can see where the two markets disagree.

The idea behind it is straightforward. Bookmakers and prediction markets price events using fundamentally different mechanisms. Sportsbooks use sophisticated models with a built-in margin. Polymarket relies on open-market trading where anyone can buy or sell outcome shares. When those two approaches produce meaningfully different numbers for the same event, it usually means one side has information or context the other hasn't priced in yet.

We sort matches by gap size and update them every two minutes. You can filter by league and see movement indicators showing whether a gap is narrowing or widening. It's not a betting signal on its own, but it's a useful starting point for spotting where the market disagrees with itself.

wagerbase pulls real-time odds data from licensed bookmakers and formats it into a clean interface for comparison and analysis. At its core, it's an odds terminal — similar to what professional traders use but designed for regular people who want to make better-informed decisions.

On top of the raw odds feed, we run two analytical tools. wagerbase is an xG-based prediction model that generates match probabilities independent of bookmaker pricing. Odds Comparison compares bookmaker odds to Polymarket prediction market prices. Both tools are designed to surface situations where there's a notable difference between what the models or markets say and what the bookmakers are offering.

Everything updates in real time. Match odds refresh on every page load, Odds Comparison polls every two minutes, and wagerbase picks are generated fresh each day based on the latest underlying data. We don't take bets ourselves — we're purely an information layer that sits between you and the bookmakers.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of placing a bet with a bookmaker, you buy and sell outcome shares that are priced between $0 and $1. If you buy a “Yes” share on “Arsenal to beat Chelsea” at $0.65, you're effectively saying you think there's more than a 65% chance Arsenal wins. If Arsenal wins, your share pays out $1. If they lose, it pays $0.

The key difference from traditional betting is that prices on Polymarket are set by supply and demand rather than by a bookmaker's trading team. This means the prices reflect the collective view of everyone trading on the platform. In theory, this “wisdom of the crowd” should be pretty accurate, but in practice the sports markets on Polymarket are thinner (less trading volume) than the major bookmakers, which means prices can be slower to react to news or team announcements.

Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain, and trades settle in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar). You don't need to understand crypto to use it — the interface handles the blockchain part — but it's worth knowing that it operates differently from traditional betting sites in terms of regulation, deposit methods, and market availability.

Yes, everything on wagerbase is free to use. The odds terminal, Odds Comparison, wagerbase picks, match pages, league pages, streaming links, and all analytical tools are available without signing up or paying anything.

We make money through affiliate partnerships with licensed bookmakers — primarily bet365. When you click through to bet365 from our site and open an account, we receive a commission. This doesn't change the odds you see, the picks we generate, or any of the analysis. The affiliate relationship is with bet365's sign-up process, not with the odds or content we show.

We chose this model because we think betting tools should be accessible to everyone, not locked behind subscriptions. The tools are the same whether you click an affiliate link or not.

Sportsbooks are generally more accurate than Polymarket for football outcomes, particularly for match results in major European leagues. The sportsbook consensus reflects decades of experience, sophisticated in-house models, and billions in volume. Their prices tend to be sharp — meaning they quickly incorporate new information like team news, injuries, and market movements.

Polymarket's sports coverage is newer and has less liquidity. On high-profile matches (Champions League finals, major international games), Polymarket prices are often close to bookmaker odds because enough traders are paying attention. But on lower-profile fixtures — Championship matches, Eredivisie games — Polymarket prices can lag behind by hours or even days. When a key player gets injured and sportsbooks adjust within minutes, Polymarket might not move until someone actively trades on that information.

That said, prediction markets aren't trying to do the same thing as bookmakers. Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (typically 3–6% overround), while Polymarket prices are closer to true implied probability. This means Polymarket can sometimes be more honest about the actual likelihood of an outcome, even if it's slower to react to breaking news. The Odds Comparison tool is specifically designed to highlight where these two views diverge.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical measure that estimates how many goals a team “should” have scored based on the quality of their chances. Every shot in a match gets assigned an xG value between 0 and 1 based on factors like distance from goal, angle, whether it was a header, the game state, and the type of assist. A penalty typically has an xG of about 0.76. A shot from 30 yards out with a defender in the way might be 0.03.

The useful thing about xG is that it separates the quality of chances from the randomness of finishing. A team that creates 2.5 xG worth of chances per match but only scores 1.2 goals is probably getting unlucky with finishing, and you'd expect their results to improve over time. Conversely, a team outperforming their xG by a wide margin is likely to regress. This makes xG a better predictor of future performance than raw goals scored.

wagerbase uses xG data as one of the inputs for the wagerbase model. By comparing a team's xG performance against what the bookmakers are pricing, we can identify matches where the market might be over- or under-valuing a team based on surface-level results rather than underlying chance creation.

To start trading on Polymarket, you need to create an account at polymarket.com. You can sign up with an email address or connect a crypto wallet. Once your account is set up, you deposit USDC (a US dollar stablecoin) to fund your balance. Polymarket supports deposits via credit card, bank transfer, or direct crypto transfer depending on your region.

Trading works like a stock exchange. You browse available markets, pick an outcome, and buy shares at the current price. If “Arsenal to Win” is trading at $0.62, you can buy shares at that price. If Arsenal wins, each share pays $1. If they don't, you lose your stake. You can also sell your shares before the event settles if the price moves in your favour — or cut your losses if it moves against you.

One thing to be aware of: Polymarket's sports markets tend to have lower liquidity than traditional bookmakers, especially for non-US sports. This means you might not always be able to get the exact price listed if you're placing a larger trade, and spreads between buy and sell prices can be wider on less popular events. Check the order book depth before placing significant trades.

wagerbase is currently the only platform that compares the consensus odds from 60+ sportsbooks against Polymarket prediction market prices in real-time. Our Odds Comparison tool monitors the difference between sportsbook consensus probabilities and Polymarket trader prices across football markets, updating every two minutes.

When the two markets disagree by more than 5%, Odds Comparison flags the match and shows which direction the gap is moving. This is useful for both traditional sports bettors (who want to see where prediction markets think the sportsbooks are wrong) and Polymarket traders (who want to spot contracts that are mispriced relative to sharp sportsbook lines).

Other tools compare odds between different bookmakers (Oddschecker, OddsPortal), but none of them include prediction market prices in the comparison. wagerbase is the first to bridge that gap between the traditional betting world and decentralized prediction markets.

The most reliable way to find value on Polymarket is to compare the prediction market price against the sportsbook consensus implied probability. The consensus across 60+ sportsbooks reflects professional trading teams with access to vast data handling billions in volume. If the sportsbook consensus prices an outcome at 55% implied probability but Polymarket has it at 48%, that 7-point gap suggests the Polymarket contract may be undervalued.

wagerbase's Odds Comparison tool does this comparison automatically. It pulls live sportsbook consensus odds and Polymarket prices, converts them to comparable implied probabilities, and surfaces the largest gaps. You can filter by league and see movement indicators showing whether the gap is narrowing or widening.

Keep in mind that gaps don't always close in the direction of the sportsbooks. Sometimes Polymarket traders have information that sportsbooks haven't priced in yet. The gap is a signal to investigate further, not a guaranteed trade.

Odds Comparison is a real-time comparison tool built by wagerbase that tracks the difference between sportsbook consensus odds and Polymarket prediction market prices. It converts both sources into implied probabilities and calculates the gap for every matched event.

Here's a concrete example: if the sportsbook consensus prices Arsenal to beat Chelsea at 1.67 odds (59.9% implied probability) but Polymarket traders are pricing the same outcome at $0.52 (52% probability), that's a 7.9-point gap. Odds Comparison surfaces this discrepancy, shows which direction the gap is trending, and updates every two minutes.

The tool covers football across 25+ leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and more). Gaps are sorted by size, so the largest disagreements between sportsbook consensus and prediction market appear first. You can view historical accuracy data on the Odds Comparison Performance page, which tracks convergence rates and simulated P&L.

The Whale Tracker monitors large trades on Polymarket sports markets in real time. When someone places a trade of $500 or more, we flag it as a “whale” move. These big trades often come from informed traders who have done their research — or insiders who know something the broader market hasn't priced in yet.

The page shows a live feed of whale activity, smart money flow indicators, and a leaderboard of the most active large wallets. You can click into any wallet to see their full trading history and win rate. It's designed to help you spot where the serious money is going before it moves the market.

Steam Moves detect when odds shift sharply across multiple bookmakers in a short window — typically because sharp bettors (professionals) have placed large wagers. When Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker) moves its line first and other bookmakers follow, that's a strong signal that informed money has entered the market.

wagerbase tracks these movements across 60+ bookmakers and flags the biggest movers with context: which bookmaker moved first, the magnitude of the shift, and whether it's a Pinnacle-led move. This gives you a window to act before slower bookmakers adjust their prices.

The Arb Scanner compares Polymarket and Kalshi prices to find pricing discrepancies. When different bookmakers disagree enough on the same event, it can create opportunities — either for arbitrage (guaranteed profit by betting both sides at different bookmakers) or simply for finding the best available price for a specific bet.

The tool runs every 15 minutes and highlights the most significant pricing gaps, showing you which bookmakers are offering the best and worst prices for each outcome.

wagerbase is our in-house match prediction model. It generates win/draw /loss probabilities for football matches by combining expected goals (xG) data, recent form, head-to-head records, and other performance indicators. The model runs independently of bookmaker odds — it doesn't know or care what the sportsbooks are pricing a match at when it generates its own view.

Once the model produces its probabilities, we compare them to the implied probabilities in bookmaker odds. If the model says a team has a 45% chance of winning but the sportsbook consensus is pricing them at 35% implied probability, that's a potential “edge” — a situation where the bookmaker may be undervaluing that outcome. We surface these as daily picks with a confidence rating and detailed breakdowns of why the model disagrees with the market.

It's important to understand what the model isn't: it's not a guaranteed winning system. No model is. Football has inherent randomness — red cards, penalties, deflected goals — that no statistical model can fully account for. wagerbase is a tool for identifying potential value, not a profit machine. We publish our full track record on the Performance page so you can evaluate how the model has done historically.