This week's MarketGap report covers pricing disagreements between bet365 and Polymarket detected from 16 Feb to 23 Feb.
Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Gaps Flagged | 605 |
| Convergence Rate | 19% |
| Biggest Gap | 53.5% |
| Simulated Bets (8%+ gaps) | 50 |
| Simulated P&L | -7.79u |
By Sport
- Basketball: 59 gaps
- Soccer: 460 gaps
- Tennis: 86 gaps
League Breakdown
| League | Gaps |
|---|---|
| Premier League | 68 |
| NBA | 59 |
| La Liga | 58 |
| Ligue 1 | 56 |
| Championship | 56 |
| Bundesliga | 48 |
| Eredivisie | 38 |
| Süper Lig | 37 |
Biggest Gap of the Week
OKC Thunder v CLE Cavaliers — away outcome
- bet365 implied: 53.5%
- Polymarket price: 0.0%
- Gap: 53.5 percentage points
- Result: home
Best Performer
The largest gap where the bet365 pricing proved more accurate:
OKC Thunder v CLE Cavaliers — 48.8% gap on home. bet365 had it at 51.2% while Polymarket priced it at 100.0%. The bookmaker had the edge here.
Where Polymarket Was Right
The largest gap where prediction markets were closer to the actual outcome:
OKC Thunder v CLE Cavaliers — 53.5% gap on away. Polymarket had it at 0.0% vs bet365's 53.5%. The market crowd outperformed the bookmaker.
Convergence Analysis
Of 568 gaps where convergence was tracked, 109 (19%) saw the gap close by at least 50%. A low convergence week, indicating persistent disagreements between the two pricing mechanisms.
Simulated P&L
Hypothetical flat 1-unit bets on the bet365 side of every gap at 8% or above:
- Bets placed: 50
- Net P&L: -7.79 units
- Yield: -15.6%
MarketGap compares bet365 bookmaker odds against Polymarket prediction market prices in real-time. View live MarketGap data →