The Verdict
Brentford at 2.21 is the market's pick and the fundamentals support it. Fulham at 3.46 only makes sense if you believe their recent trajectory is shifting.
Best bet: Brentford to win at 2.21
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Saturday 18 April at 11:30 | Premier League
Brentford sit 7th in the Premier League on 47 points. Their visitors Fulham are 12th on 44. Brentford's recent form reads DDDDW. Fulham come in with LWDLW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Brentford | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 12th |
| Points | 47 | 44 |
| Record | 13W 8D 11L | 13W 5D 14L |
| Goals Scored | 48 (1.5/game) | 43 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 44 (1.4/game) | 46 (1.4/game) |
| Goal Difference | +4 | -3 |
| xG | 48.6 (1.62/game) | 43.8 (1.46/game) |
| xGA | 42.9 (1.43/game) | 47.3 (1.58/game) |
| Form | DDDDW | LWDLW |
xG Analysis
Brentford are underperforming their xG by 2.6 this season (1.62 xG/game). Fulham underperform xG by 1.8 (1.46 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Brentford's xG has dipped recently (1.9 last 3 vs 2.7 prior). Fulham's xG is trending upward (1.7 last 3 vs 1.0 prior).
Key Players
Brentford
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa | 18 | 20.73 | 3.45 | 90 | 35 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 20 | 13.63 | 10.38 | 86 | 38 |
| Kevin Schade | 11 | 9.47 | 3.71 | 55 | 38 |
| Christian Nørgaard | 5 | 5.77 | 1.92 | 39 | 34 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 2 | 3.48 | 9.25 | 35 | 38 |
Fulham
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez | 12 | 14.41 | 4.08 | 96 | 38 |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 8 | 6.84 | 0.78 | 40 | 31 |
| Adama Traoré | 2 | 5.66 | 6.42 | 39 | 36 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe | 6 | 5.26 | 2.43 | 37 | 34 |
| Alex Iwobi | 9 | 5.02 | 8.46 | 68 | 38 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford Win | 2.21 | 45% | 2.20 | 46% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 26% | 3.91 | 26% |
| Fulham Win | 3.46 | 29% | 3.44 | 29% |
Based on 56 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Brentford.
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