Sunday 19 April at 13:00 | Premier League
The Verdict
Liverpool are rightful favourites at 2.35 across 56 bookmakers. The xG data confirms the market view — Liverpool create more (1.62/game) and concede less (1.21 xGA) than Everton (1.22/1.51). Watch for Mohamed Salah (29 goals, 27.71 xG) as the standout individual threat.
Match Context
Form goes out the window when these two meet. The Everton-Liverpool rivalry transcends league position, though Everton (8th) and Liverpool (5th) arrive separated by 5 points.
Season Performance Comparison
| Metric | Everton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Points | 47 | 52 |
| Record | 13W 8D 11L | 15W 7D 10L |
| Goals Scored | 39 (1.2/game) | 52 (1.6/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 37 (1.2/game) | 42 (1.3/game) |
| Goal Difference | +2 | +10 |
| xG | 36.5 (1.22/game) | 48.6 (1.62/game) |
| xGA | 45.4 (1.51/game) | 36.3 (1.21/game) |
| Form | DWLWW | WLDLW |
xG Deep Dive
Everton have scored 39 goals from 36.5 xG this season — performing roughly in line with expectation. Liverpool: 52 goals from 48.6 xG — on track with xG.
Game State Performance
Everton xG trend (last 6 matches): 1.1 vs Newcastle United, 2.7 vs Southampton, 1.3 vs Fulham, 0.8 vs Ipswich, 0.9 vs Chelsea, 0.8 vs Manchester City.
Liverpool xG trend (last 6 matches): 1.9 vs Crystal Palace, 3.1 vs Brighton, 2.7 vs Arsenal, 1.4 vs Chelsea, 2.5 vs Tottenham, 4.5 vs Leicester.
Key Player Matchups
Everton
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto | 8 | 9.27 | 1.39 | 49 | 30 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 3 | 8.58 | 0.74 | 50 | 26 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 9 | 7.09 | 1.91 | 37 | 33 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré | 3 | 4.05 | 2.32 | 31 | 33 |
| Jack Harrison | 1 | 3.38 | 3.65 | 29 | 34 |
Liverpool
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 29 | 27.71 | 15.86 | 130 | 38 |
| Luis Díaz | 13 | 12.36 | 6.25 | 71 | 36 |
| Diogo Jota | 6 | 10.21 | 1.85 | 51 | 26 |
| Cody Gakpo | 10 | 8.6 | 6.26 | 57 | 35 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 6 | 7.01 | 7.86 | 68 | 36 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton Win | 3.33 | 30% | 3.35 | 31% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 27% | 3.62 | 28% |
| Liverpool Win | 2.35 | 43% | 2.36 | 44% |
Based on 56 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Liverpool.
Odds correct at time of writing. Check latest prices on wagerbase. View full predictions for Premier League.