The Verdict
Don't sleep on Goztepe. They create 1.34 xG/game — more than favourite Kocaelispor (0.87). The away win at 2.93 deserves a closer look. The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 31% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.23 has value. This has low-scoring written all over it. A combined 2.0 goals per game between these two points firmly toward Under 2.5.
Best bet: Goztepe to win at 2.93
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Saturday 18 April at 14:00 | Süper Lig
Kocaelispor sit 9th in the Süper Lig on 35 points. Their visitors Goztepe are 6th on 47. Kocaelispor's recent form reads DDLLW. Goztepe come in with DLWDL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Kocaelispor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 6th |
| Points | 35 | 47 |
| Record | 9W 8D 12L | 12W 11D 6L |
| Goals Scored | 24 (0.8/game) | 36 (1.2/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 33 (1.1/game) | 26 (0.9/game) |
| Goal Difference | -9 | +10 |
| xG | 25.3 (0.87/game) | 40.1 (1.34/game) |
| xGA | 29 (1/game) | 31.5 (1.05/game) |
| Form | DDLLW | DLWDL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor Win | 2.86 | 35% | 3.05 | 36% |
| Draw | 3.23 | 31% | 3.09 | 33% |
| Goztepe Win | 2.93 | 34% | 2.86 | 35% |
Based on 46 bookmakers. Agreement: 57% lean toward Kocaelispor.
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