The Verdict
The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 28% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.59 has value. Neither side can buy a win right now — West Ham United (LDWLD), Leeds United (DDLLD). The draw at 3.59 has to be considered.
Best bet: Draw at 3.59
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Sunday 5 April at 15:30 | FA Cup
West Ham United sit 18th in the FA Cup on 29 points. Their visitors Leeds United are 15th on 33. West Ham United's recent form reads LDWLD. Leeds United come in with DDLLD.
Season Numbers
| Metric | West Ham United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 15th |
| Points | 29 | 33 |
| Record | 7W 8D 16L | 7W 12D 12L |
| Goals Scored | 36 (1.2/game) | 37 (1.2/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 57 (1.8/game) | 48 (1.5/game) |
| Goal Difference | -21 | -11 |
| xG | 32.6 (1.21/game) | 40.1 (1.49/game) |
| xGA | 48.3 (1.79/game) | 41.4 (1.53/game) |
| Form | LDWLD | DDLLD |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United Win | 2.80 | 36% | 2.86 | 38% |
| Draw | 3.59 | 28% | 3.53 | 29% |
| Leeds United Win | 2.74 | 37% | 2.72 | 37% |
Based on 40 bookmakers. Agreement: 70% lean toward Leeds United.
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