Tools/Poisson Calculator

Poisson Goal Probability Calculator

Enter expected goals (xG) for each team and get a full correct score probability grid, 1X2 odds, over/under lines, and BTTS probabilities.

Home Win
44.1%
Fair: 2.27
Draw
25.5%
Fair: 3.92
Away Win
30.3%
Fair: 3.30

Correct Score Probabilities

H \ A0123456
06.7%8.1%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%
110.1%12.1%7.3%2.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%
27.6%9.1%5.4%2.2%0.7%0.2%0.0%
33.8%4.5%2.7%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Over / Under

0.5 goals
O 93.3%U 6.7%
1.5 goals
O 75.1%U 24.9%
2.5 goals
O 50.6%U 49.4%
3.5 goals
O 28.6%U 71.4%
4.5 goals
O 13.7%U 86.3%

BTTS

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Most Likely Scores

1. 1-112.1%
2. 1-010.1%
3. 2-19.1%
4. 0-18.1%
5. 2-07.6%

How Poisson Works for Football

The Poisson distribution models the probability of a given number of goals based on the expected average (xG). Each team's goal probability is independent.

Correct score probabilities are calculated by multiplying the individual goal probabilities: P(2-1) = P(home scores 2) × P(away scores 1).