The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — Samsunspor actually create more (1.28 xG/game) than Alanyaspor (0.99). Samsunspor at 3.25 could offer value.
Best bet: Samsunspor to win at 3.25
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Monday 27 April at 14:00 | Süper Lig
Alanyaspor sit 12th in the Süper Lig on 33 points. Their visitors Samsunspor are 7th on 42. Alanyaspor's recent form reads LDDWD. Samsunspor come in with WWLDW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 7th |
| Points | 33 | 42 |
| Record | 6W 15D 9L | 10W 12D 8L |
| Goals Scored | 35 (1.2/game) | 36 (1.2/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 35 (1.2/game) | 39 (1.3/game) |
| Goal Difference | +0 | -3 |
| xG | 29.7 (0.99/game) | 38.5 (1.28/game) |
| xGA | 38.6 (1.29/game) | 32.6 (1.09/game) |
| Form | LDDWD | WWLDW |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor Win | 2.53 | 40% | 2.55 | 43% |
| Draw | 3.36 | 30% | 3.31 | 31% |
| Samsunspor Win | 3.25 | 31% | 3.27 | 32% |
Based on 46 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Alanyaspor.
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