The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — Bayern Munich actually create more (2.55 xG/game) than Paris Saint Germain (2.09). Bayern Munich at 2.90 could offer value.
Best bet: Bayern Munich to win at 2.90
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Tuesday 28 April at 19:00 | Champions League
Paris Saint Germain sit 11th in the Champions League on 14 points. Their visitors Bayern Munich are 2nd on 21. Paris Saint Germain's recent form reads DLDWL. Bayern Munich come in with WWWLW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Paris Saint Germain | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 2nd |
| Points | 14 | 21 |
| Record | 4W 2D 2L | 7W 0D 1L |
| Goals Scored | 21 (2.6/game) | 22 (2.8/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 11 (1.4/game) | 8 (1/game) |
| Goal Difference | +10 | +14 |
| xG | 62.8 (2.09/game) | 76.6 (2.55/game) |
| xGA | 35.6 (1.19/game) | 36.2 (1.21/game) |
| Form | DLDWL | WWWLW |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain Win | 2.43 | 41% | 2.42 | 42% |
| Draw | 4.09 | 24% | 4.06 | 25% |
| Bayern Munich Win | 2.90 | 35% | 2.94 | 35% |
Based on 56 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Paris Saint Germain.
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