The Verdict
Bournemouth at 2.13 is the market's pick and the fundamentals support it. Leeds United at 3.76 only makes sense if you believe their recent trajectory is shifting.
Best bet: Bournemouth to win at 2.13
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Wednesday 22 April at 19:00 | Premier League
Bournemouth sit 8th in the Premier League on 48 points. Their visitors Leeds United are 15th on 39. Bournemouth's recent form reads WWDDD. Leeds United come in with WWDDL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Bournemouth | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 15th |
| Points | 48 | 39 |
| Record | 11W 15D 7L | 9W 12D 12L |
| Goals Scored | 50 (1.5/game) | 42 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 50 (1.5/game) | 49 (1.5/game) |
| Goal Difference | +0 | -7 |
| xG | 50.6 (1.69/game) | 40.1 (1.49/game) |
| xGA | 53.9 (1.8/game) | 41.4 (1.53/game) |
| Form | WWDDD | WWDDL |
xG Analysis
Bournemouth generate 1.69 xG per game, concede 1.8. Leeds United underperform xG by 3.1 (1.49 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Bournemouth's xG is trending upward (1.6 last 3 vs 0.9 prior).
Key Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo | 11 | 14.55 | 6.61 | 126 | 37 |
| Evanilson | 10 | 13.71 | 1.92 | 73 | 31 |
| Dango Ouattara | 7 | 10.93 | 5.99 | 62 | 32 |
| Justin Kluivert | 12 | 10.44 | 5.51 | 63 | 34 |
| Marcus Tavernier | 3 | 6.41 | 5.2 | 57 | 29 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 2.13 | 47% | 2.11 | 48% |
| Draw | 3.77 | 27% | 3.75 | 27% |
| Leeds United Win | 3.76 | 27% | 3.86 | 27% |
Based on 48 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Bournemouth.
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