The Verdict
Manchester City hold the xG advantage — 1.77/game vs 0.91. The underlying data backs the market's assessment.
Best bet: Manchester City to win at 1.21
View player prop markets for detailed player-level edges →
Place your bet at bet365 | Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits — Claim offer at bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits
Wednesday 22 April at 19:00 | Premier League
Burnley sit 19th in the Premier League on 20 points. Their visitors Manchester City are 2nd on 67. Burnley's recent form reads LLLDL. Manchester City come in with WWDDW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Burnley | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 19th | 2nd |
| Points | 20 | 67 |
| Record | 4W 8D 21L | 20W 7D 5L |
| Goals Scored | 34 (1/game) | 65 (2/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 67 (2/game) | 29 (0.9/game) |
| Goal Difference | -33 | +36 |
| xG | 27.4 (0.91/game) | 51.3 (1.77/game) |
| xGA | 53.2 (1.77/game) | 33.2 (1.15/game) |
| Form | LLLDL | WWDDW |
xG Analysis
Burnley are outscoring their xG by 3.6 this season (0.91 xG/game). Manchester City: 1.77 xG for, 1.15 against per game.
Game State Performance
Manchester City's xG is trending upward (1.9 last 3 vs 1.4 prior).
Key Players
Manchester City
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 22 | 23.95 | 3.58 | 109 | 31 |
| Phil Foden | 7 | 6.18 | 5.38 | 54 | 28 |
| Omar Marmoush | 7 | 5.65 | 2.68 | 49 | 16 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 4 | 5.54 | 8.93 | 57 | 28 |
| Sávio | 1 | 5.25 | 6.94 | 55 | 29 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 17.01 | 6% | 17.79 | 7% |
| Draw | 8.71 | 12% | 9.37 | 13% |
| Manchester City Win | 1.21 | 83% | 1.19 | 84% |
Based on 48 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Manchester City.
Place your bet at bet365 | Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits — Claim offer at bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits
More from wagerbase
Premier League Predictions | Accumulators | Steam Moves | Model Wars | Odds Comparison | Player Props