The Verdict
Goals look likely — Bournemouth average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Manchester United: 1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded. That's 3.3 combined goals per game. Manchester United have been finishing above their xG all season. The surplus is a warning sign for backers.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals
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Friday 20 March at 20:00 | Premier League
Bournemouth sit 10th in the Premier League on 41 points. Their visitors Manchester United are 3rd on 54. Bournemouth's recent form reads DDDDW. Manchester United come in with WLWWD.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Bournemouth | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 3rd |
| Points | 41 | 54 |
| Record | 9W 14D 7L | 15W 9D 6L |
| Goals Scored | 44 (1.5/game) | 54 (1.8/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 46 (1.5/game) | 41 (1.4/game) |
| Goal Difference | -2 | +13 |
| xG | 47.9 (1.6/game) | 53.2 (1.77/game) |
| xGA | 51.5 (1.72/game) | 32.9 (1.1/game) |
| Form | DDDDW | WLWWD |
xG Analysis
Bournemouth are underperforming their xG by 2.9 this season (1.6 xG/game). Manchester United outperform xG by 5.8 (1.77 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Bournemouth's xG is trending upward (1.6 last 3 vs 0.9 prior). Manchester United's xG is trending upward (1.9 last 3 vs 1.4 prior).
Key Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo | 11 | 14.55 | 6.61 | 126 | 37 |
| Evanilson | 10 | 13.71 | 1.92 | 73 | 31 |
| Dango Ouattara | 7 | 10.93 | 5.99 | 62 | 32 |
| Justin Kluivert | 12 | 10.44 | 5.51 | 63 | 34 |
| Marcus Tavernier | 3 | 6.41 | 5.2 | 57 | 29 |
Manchester United
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | 8 | 9.89 | 10.23 | 96 | 36 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | 6 | 9.44 | 3.47 | 84 | 36 |
| Rasmus Højlund | 4 | 5.87 | 2.14 | 32 | 32 |
| Joshua Zirkzee | 3 | 5.22 | 2.01 | 28 | 32 |
| Amad Diallo Traore | 8 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 47 | 26 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 3.32 | 30% | 3.33 | 31% |
| Draw | 3.96 | 25% | 3.96 | 26% |
| Manchester United Win | 2.24 | 45% | 2.23 | 45% |
Based on 57 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Manchester United.
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