The Verdict
Liverpool at 2.34 is the market's pick and the fundamentals support it. Brighton and Hove Albion at 3.26 only makes sense if you believe their recent trajectory is shifting.
Best bet: Liverpool to win at 2.34
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Saturday 21 March at 12:30 | Premier League
Brighton and Hove Albion sit 12th in the Premier League on 40 points. Their visitors Liverpool are 5th on 49. Brighton and Hove Albion's recent form reads WLWWL. Liverpool come in with DLWWW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Brighton and Hove Albion | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 5th |
| Points | 40 | 49 |
| Record | 10W 10D 10L | 14W 7D 9L |
| Goals Scored | 39 (1.3/game) | 49 (1.6/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 36 (1.2/game) | 40 (1.3/game) |
| Goal Difference | +3 | +9 |
| Form | WLWWL | DLWWW |
xG Analysis
Liverpool: 1.64 xG for, 1.18 against per game.
Game State Performance
Brighton and Hove Albion's xG is trending upward (2.2 last 3 vs 1.1 prior).
Key Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Welbeck | 10 | 10.46 | 2.08 | 59 | 30 |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 10 | 10.22 | 4.95 | 57 | 36 |
| João Pedro | 10 | 8.86 | 5.62 | 47 | 27 |
| Georginio Rutter | 5 | 5.68 | 3.13 | 50 | 28 |
| Yankuba Minteh | 6 | 5.67 | 4.87 | 34 | 32 |
Liverpool
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 29 | 27.71 | 15.86 | 130 | 38 |
| Luis Díaz | 13 | 12.36 | 6.25 | 71 | 36 |
| Diogo Jota | 6 | 10.21 | 1.85 | 51 | 26 |
| Cody Gakpo | 10 | 8.6 | 6.26 | 57 | 35 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 6 | 7.01 | 7.86 | 68 | 36 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion Win | 3.26 | 31% | 3.24 | 31% |
| Draw | 3.78 | 27% | 3.72 | 27% |
| Liverpool Win | 2.34 | 43% | 2.37 | 44% |
Based on 57 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Liverpool.
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