The Verdict
The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 30% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.37 has value. The finishing hasn't matched the chance creation for Crystal Palace (1.46 xG, 1.1 actual). The dam should break.
Best bet: Draw at 3.37
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Sunday 15 March at 14:00 | Premier League
Crystal Palace sit 14th in the Premier League on 38 points. Their visitors Leeds United are 15th on 31. Crystal Palace's recent form reads WLWLW. Leeds United come in with LLDDW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 15th |
| Points | 38 | 31 |
| Record | 10W 8D 11L | 7W 10D 12L |
| Goals Scored | 33 (1.1/game) | 37 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 35 (1.2/game) | 48 (1.7/game) |
| Goal Difference | -2 | -11 |
| xG | 43.7 (1.46/game) | 40.1 (1.49/game) |
| xGA | 43.6 (1.45/game) | 41.4 (1.53/game) |
| Form | WLWLW | LLDDW |
xG Analysis
Crystal Palace are underperforming their xG by 15.7 this season (1.46 xG/game). Leeds United underperform xG by 3.1 (1.49 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Crystal Palace's xG is trending upward (2.4 last 3 vs 1.7 prior).
Key Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 14 | 15.83 | 3.85 | 69 | 37 |
| Ismaila Sarr | 8 | 12.31 | 10.06 | 59 | 38 |
| Eberechi Eze | 8 | 9.88 | 7.02 | 102 | 34 |
| Eddie Nketiah | 3 | 7.15 | 1.39 | 43 | 29 |
| Daniel Muñoz | 4 | 5.79 | 5.94 | 37 | 37 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace Win | 2.62 | 38% | 2.62 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.37 | 30% | 3.37 | 30% |
| Leeds United Win | 3.11 | 32% | 3.11 | 33% |
Based on 57 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Crystal Palace.
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