The Verdict
Don't sleep on SC Freiburg. They create 1.5 xG/game — more than favourite FC St. Pauli (0.84). The away win at 2.94 deserves a closer look. The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 31% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.21 has value.
Best bet: SC Freiburg to win at 2.94
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Sunday 22 March at 16:30 | Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli sit 16th in the Bundesliga on 24 points. Their visitors SC Freiburg are 8th on 34. FC St. Pauli's recent form reads LDWWL. SC Freiburg come in with LDLWL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | FC St. Pauli | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 8th |
| Points | 24 | 34 |
| Record | 6W 6D 14L | 9W 7D 10L |
| Goals Scored | 23 (0.9/game) | 37 (1.4/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 42 (1.6/game) | 43 (1.7/game) |
| Goal Difference | -19 | -6 |
| xG | 25.1 (0.84/game) | 45 (1.5/game) |
| xGA | 46.1 (1.54/game) | 40.2 (1.34/game) |
| Form | LDWWL | LDLWL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli Win | 2.87 | 35% | 2.91 | 35% |
| Draw | 3.21 | 31% | 3.15 | 32% |
| SC Freiburg Win | 2.94 | 34% | 2.95 | 35% |
Based on 55 bookmakers. Agreement: 64% lean toward FC St. Pauli.
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