Thursday 12 March at 17:45 | Conference League
Lech Poznań sit 11th in the Conference League on 10 points. Their visitors Shakhtar Donetsk are 6th on 13. Lech Poznań's recent form reads WDWLL. Shakhtar Donetsk come in with DWWWL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Lech Poznań | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 6th |
| Points | 10 | 13 |
| Record | 3W 1D 2L | 4W 1D 1L |
| Goals Scored | 12 (2/game) | 10 (1.7/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 8 (1.3/game) | 5 (0.8/game) |
| Goal Difference | +4 | +5 |
| Form | WDWLL | DWWWL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań Win | 2.69 | 37% | 2.68 | 38% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 28% | 3.63 | 29% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 2.89 | 35% | 2.85 | 35% |
Based on 29 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Lech Poznań.
The Verdict
The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 28% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.55 has value.
Best bet: Draw at 3.55
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