The Verdict
The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 28% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.61 has value. Neither side can buy a win right now — Leeds United (DLLDD), Brentford (DDWLD). The draw at 3.61 has to be considered.
Best bet: Draw at 3.61
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Saturday 21 March at 20:00 | Premier League
Leeds United sit 15th in the Premier League on 32 points. Their visitors Brentford are 7th on 45. Leeds United's recent form reads DLLDD. Brentford come in with DDWLD.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Leeds United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 7th |
| Points | 32 | 45 |
| Record | 7W 11D 12L | 13W 6D 11L |
| Goals Scored | 37 (1.2/game) | 46 (1.5/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 48 (1.6/game) | 42 (1.4/game) |
| Goal Difference | -11 | +4 |
| xG | 40.1 (1.49/game) | 47.8 (1.59/game) |
| xGA | 41.4 (1.53/game) | 44.5 (1.48/game) |
| Form | DLLDD | DDWLD |
xG Analysis
Leeds United are underperforming their xG by 3.1 this season (1.49 xG/game). Brentford underperform xG by 3.8 (1.59 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Brentford's xG has dipped recently (1.9 last 3 vs 2.7 prior).
Key Players
Brentford
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa | 18 | 20.73 | 3.45 | 90 | 35 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 20 | 13.63 | 10.38 | 86 | 38 |
| Kevin Schade | 11 | 9.47 | 3.71 | 55 | 38 |
| Christian Nørgaard | 5 | 5.77 | 1.92 | 39 | 34 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 2 | 3.48 | 9.25 | 35 | 38 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United Win | 2.58 | 39% | 2.58 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.61 | 28% | 3.61 | 28% |
| Brentford Win | 2.98 | 34% | 2.98 | 34% |
Based on 57 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Leeds United.
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