The Verdict
Regression watch: Real Madrid are converting at an unsustainable rate from 2 xG.
Best bet: Manchester City or Under 2.5 Goals
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Tuesday 17 March at 20:00 | Champions League
Manchester City sit 8th in the Champions League on 16 points. Their visitors Real Madrid are 9th on 15. Manchester City's recent form reads WLWLW. Real Madrid come in with LWLWL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Manchester City | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Points | 16 | 15 |
| Record | 5W 1D 2L | 5W 0D 3L |
| Goals Scored | 15 (1.9/game) | 21 (2.6/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 9 (1.1/game) | 12 (1.5/game) |
| Goal Difference | +6 | +9 |
| xG | 50.6 (1.87/game) | 60 (2/game) |
| xGA | 34.8 (1.29/game) | 44.6 (1.49/game) |
| Form | WLWLW | LWLWL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | 1.59 | 63% | 1.56 | 64% |
| Draw | 5.33 | 19% | 5.56 | 21% |
| Real Madrid Win | 5.50 | 18% | 5.61 | 19% |
Based on 51 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Manchester City.
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