Sunday 15 March at 14:00 | Premier League
Manchester United sit 3rd in the Premier League on 51 points. Their visitors Aston Villa are 4th on 51. Manchester United's recent form reads LWWDW. Aston Villa come in with LLDWD.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Points | 51 | 51 |
| Record | 14W 9D 6L | 15W 6D 8L |
| Goals Scored | 51 (1.8/game) | 39 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 40 (1.4/game) | 34 (1.2/game) |
| Goal Difference | +11 | +5 |
| xG | 53.4 (1.78/game) | 44.6 (1.49/game) |
| xGA | 33.7 (1.12/game) | 46.3 (1.54/game) |
| Form | LWWDW | LLDWD |
xG Analysis
Manchester United are outscoring their xG by 4.6 this season (1.78 xG/game). Aston Villa: 1.49 xG for, 1.54 against per game.
Game State Performance
Manchester United's xG is trending upward (2.3 last 3 vs 1.4 prior). Aston Villa's xG has dipped recently (1.0 last 3 vs 2.1 prior).
Key Players
Manchester United
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 22 | 23.95 | 3.58 | 109 | 31 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 8 | 9.89 | 10.23 | 96 | 36 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | 6 | 9.44 | 3.47 | 84 | 36 |
| Phil Foden | 7 | 6.18 | 5.38 | 54 | 28 |
| Rasmus Højlund | 4 | 5.87 | 2.14 | 32 | 32 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | 16 | 18.63 | 3.88 | 84 | 38 |
| Morgan Rogers | 8 | 8.22 | 8.15 | 55 | 37 |
| Jhon Durán | 7 | 5.1 | 0.23 | 31 | 20 |
| Marcus Rashford | 6 | 4.99 | 4.73 | 35 | 25 |
| Marco Asensio | 3 | 4.56 | 1.26 | 24 | 13 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United Win | 1.79 | 56% | 1.74 | 57% |
| Draw | 4.32 | 23% | 4.52 | 24% |
| Aston Villa Win | 4.75 | 21% | 4.87 | 22% |
Based on 57 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Manchester United.
The Verdict
A note of caution on Manchester United: scoring 1.8/game from just 1.78 xG. That overperformance is borrowed time.
Best bet: Aston Villa or Under 2.5 Goals
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