Sunday 3 May at 14:30 | Premier League

The Verdict

The market can't split these two, and it's hard to argue. 56 bookmakers see a coin-flip, with the draw at 3.93 looking the most likely single outcome. Watch for Mohamed Salah (29 goals, 27.71 xG) as the standout individual threat.

Match Context

Manchester United sit 3rd in the Premier League on 61 points. Their visitors Liverpool are 4th on 58. Manchester United's recent form reads WWLDW. Liverpool come in with WWWLD.

Season Performance Comparison

Metric	Manchester United	Liverpool
Position	3rd	4th
Points	61	58
Record	17W 10D 7L	17W 7D 10L
Goals Scored	60 (1.8/game)	57 (1.7/game)
Goals Conceded	46 (1.4/game)	44 (1.3/game)
Goal Difference	+14	+13
xG	49.7 (1.66/game)	47.2 (1.57/game)
xGA	35.2 (1.17/game)	36 (1.2/game)
Form	WWLDW	WWWLD

xG Deep Dive

Manchester United have scored 60 goals from 49.7 xG this season — clinical finishing, outperforming xG by 7.3. Liverpool: 57 goals from 47.2 xG — on track with xG.

Game State Performance

Manchester United xG trend (last 6 matches): 3.0 vs Aston Villa, 0.3 vs Chelsea, 2.3 vs West Ham, 1.1 vs Brentford, 1.9 vs Bournemouth, 1.1 vs Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Liverpool xG trend (last 6 matches): 1.9 vs Crystal Palace, 3.1 vs Brighton, 2.7 vs Arsenal, 1.4 vs Chelsea, 2.5 vs Tottenham, 4.5 vs Leicester.

Key Player Matchups