The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — Liverpool actually create more (2.47 xG/game) than Paris Saint Germain (2.12). Liverpool at 4.58 could offer value.
Best bet: Liverpool to win at 4.58
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Wednesday 8 April at 19:00 | Champions League
Paris Saint Germain sit 11th in the Champions League on 14 points. Their visitors Liverpool are 3rd on 18. Paris Saint Germain's recent form reads DLDWL. Liverpool come in with WWWLW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Paris Saint Germain | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 3rd |
| Points | 14 | 18 |
| Record | 4W 2D 2L | 6W 0D 2L |
| Goals Scored | 21 (2.6/game) | 20 (2.5/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 11 (1.4/game) | 8 (1/game) |
| Goal Difference | +10 | +12 |
| xG | 61.4 (2.12/game) | 69.2 (2.47/game) |
| xGA | 33.7 (1.16/game) | 25.7 (0.92/game) |
| Form | DLDWL | WWWLW |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain Win | 1.81 | 55% | 1.81 | 57% |
| Draw | 4.38 | 23% | 4.35 | 23% |
| Liverpool Win | 4.58 | 22% | 4.59 | 22% |
Based on 54 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Paris Saint Germain.
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