Friday 24 April at 19:00 | Premier League
The Verdict
The market can't split these two, and it's hard to argue. 55 bookmakers see a coin-flip, with the draw at 3.42 looking the most likely single outcome. Smart money is moving on Sunderland — 3 bookmakers have adjusted their line (moderate signal, score 50/100). Watch for Chris Wood (20 goals, 15.64 xG) as the standout individual threat.
Match Context
Sunderland sit 11th in the Premier League on 46 points. Their visitors Nottingham Forest are 16th on 36. Sunderland's recent form reads LWWLW. Nottingham Forest come in with WDWDD.
Season Performance Comparison
| Metric | Sunderland | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 16th |
| Points | 46 | 36 |
| Record | 12W 10D 11L | 9W 9D 15L |
| Goals Scored | 36 (1.1/game) | 36 (1.1/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 40 (1.2/game) | 45 (1.4/game) |
| Goal Difference | -4 | -9 |
| xG | 33.2 (1.11/game) | 35 (1.17/game) |
| xGA | 46.1 (1.54/game) | 42.9 (1.43/game) |
| Form | LWWLW | WDWDD |
xG Deep Dive
Sunderland have scored 36 goals from 33.2 xG this season — wasteful in front of goal, underperforming xG by 5.2. Nottingham Forest: 36 goals from 35 xG — on track with xG.
Game State Performance
Nottingham Forest xG trend (last 6 matches): 1.6 vs Chelsea, 2.1 vs West Ham, 1.8 vs Leicester, 0.6 vs Crystal Palace, 0.7 vs Brentford, 0.6 vs Tottenham.
Key Player Matchups
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood | 20 | 15.64 | 3.04 | 68 | 36 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 7 | 6.14 | 6.11 | 61 | 34 |
| Anthony Elanga | 6 | 5.92 | 6.61 | 44 | 38 |
| Nikola Milenkovic | 5 | 4.57 | 1.04 | 29 | 37 |
| Neco Williams | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | 37 | 35 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 2.88 | 35% | 2.84 | 36% |
| Draw | 3.42 | 29% | 3.38 | 30% |
| Nottingham Forest Win | 2.78 | 36% | 2.84 | 37% |
Based on 55 bookmakers. Agreement: 75% lean toward Nottingham Forest.
Steam Moves
- Sunderland drifting: 3 bookmakers moving, signal score 50/100 (moderate)
Odds correct at time of writing. Check latest prices on wagerbase. View full predictions for Premier League.