Sunday 12 April at 13:00 | Premier League
The Verdict
The market can't split these two, and it's hard to argue. 55 bookmakers see a coin-flip, with the draw at 3.54 looking the most likely single outcome. Watch for Dominic Solanke (9 goals, 12.42 xG) as the standout individual threat.
Match Context
Sunderland sit 11th in the Premier League on 43 points. Their visitors Tottenham Hotspur are 17th on 30. Sunderland's recent form reads WLWDL. Tottenham Hotspur come in with LDLLL.
Season Performance Comparison
| Metric | Sunderland | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 17th |
| Points | 43 | 30 |
| Record | 11W 10D 10L | 7W 9D 15L |
| Goals Scored | 32 (1/game) | 40 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 36 (1.2/game) | 50 (1.6/game) |
| Goal Difference | -4 | -10 |
| xG | 31.2 (1.04/game) | 29.8 (1.15/game) |
| xGA | 48.4 (1.61/game) | 38.1 (1.47/game) |
| Form | WLWDL | LDLLL |
xG Deep Dive
Sunderland have scored 32 goals from 31.2 xG this season — wasteful in front of goal, underperforming xG by 7.2. Tottenham Hotspur: 40 goals from 29.8 xG — outperforming by 7.2.
Game State Performance
Tottenham Hotspur xG trend (last 6 matches): 1.9 vs Brighton, 0.5 vs Aston Villa, 0.8 vs Crystal Palace, 0.8 vs West Ham, 0.5 vs Liverpool, 2.4 vs Nottingham Forest.
Key Player Matchups
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke | 9 | 12.42 | 2.46 | 60 | 27 |
| Brennan Johnson | 11 | 11.16 | 2.95 | 54 | 33 |
| Son Heung-Min | 7 | 7.91 | 9.04 | 57 | 30 |
| James Maddison | 9 | 5.89 | 6.02 | 39 | 31 |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 7 | 5.52 | 6.5 | 47 | 32 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 2.79 | 36% | 2.77 | 36% |
| Draw | 3.54 | 28% | 3.52 | 29% |
| Tottenham Hotspur Win | 2.79 | 36% | 2.82 | 36% |
Based on 55 bookmakers. Agreement: 38% lean toward Tottenham Hotspur.
Odds correct at time of writing. Check latest prices on wagerbase. View full predictions for Premier League.