Saturday 4 April at 16:30 | Bundesliga
The Verdict
The market can't split these two, and it's hard to argue. 54 bookmakers see a coin-flip, with the draw at 4.15 looking the most likely single outcome. Interestingly, Borussia Dortmund's underlying numbers (2.09 xG/game) are stronger than VfB Stuttgart's (1.69). The price may not fully reflect this.
Match Context
This is a genuine title clash. VfB Stuttgart (3rd, 53 pts) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd, 61 pts) with just 8 points between them. The winner will take a significant step in the Bundesliga title race, while the loser faces an uphill battle for the remainder of the season.
Season Performance Comparison
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Points | 53 | 61 |
| Record | 16W 5D 6L | 18W 7D 2L |
| Goals Scored | 56 (2.1/game) | 58 (2.1/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 36 (1.3/game) | 28 (1/game) |
| Goal Difference | +20 | +30 |
| xG | 50.7 (1.69/game) | 62.8 (2.09/game) |
| xGA | 46.3 (1.54/game) | 37.5 (1.25/game) |
| Form | WWDWD | WWWLD |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 2.46 | 41% | 2.40 | 42% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 24% | 4.25 | 25% |
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 2.84 | 35% | 2.87 | 36% |
Based on 54 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward VfB Stuttgart.
Odds correct at time of writing. Check latest prices on wagerbase. View full predictions for Bundesliga.