Our picks for the three most compelling fixtures this weekend across the Premier League, Championship, and La Liga.
1. Hull vs Millwall
Championship — Saturday 7 March at 12:30
The Stakes
Hull sit 5th on 60 points; Millwall are 3rd on 62. Hull average 1.6 goals per game and concede 1.4. Millwall: 1.3 scored, 1.1 conceded per match.
xG Insight
Hull are outscoring their xG by 11.7 this season (1.24 xG/game). Millwall outperform xG by 2.8.
The Odds
bet365: Hull 2.85 (35%), Draw 3.30 (30%), Millwall 2.25 (44%).
Our View
Millwall at 2.25 looks justified by the numbers.
2. Blackburn vs Portsmouth
Championship — Saturday 7 March at 12:30
The Stakes
Relegation six-pointer. Blackburn (20th, 38 pts) need points just as badly as Portsmouth (19th, 39 pts). Blackburn average 0.9 goals per game and concede 1.3. Portsmouth: 1 scored, 1.3 conceded per match.
xG Insight
Blackburn are underperforming their xG by 7.8 this season (1.19 xG/game). Portsmouth underperform xG by 3.4.
The Odds
bet365: Blackburn 2.45 (41%), Draw 3.00 (33%), Portsmouth 2.75 (36%).
Our View
Genuinely hard to split. The market sees a coin-flip and the form backs that up. Draw at 3.00 looks the value play.
3. Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid
La Liga — Friday 6 March at 20:00
The Stakes
Celta Vigo sit 6th on 40 points; Real Madrid are 2nd on 60. Celta Vigo average 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.1. Real Madrid: 2.1 scored, 0.8 conceded per match.
xG Insight
Celta Vigo are outscoring their xG by 3.5 this season (1.42 xG/game). Real Madrid underperform xG by 6.2.
The Odds
bet365: Celta Vigo 3.30 (30%), Draw 3.70 (27%), Real Madrid 2.05 (49%).
Our View
Real Madrid at 2.05 looks justified by the numbers. xG advantage (2.21 vs 1.42) confirms the market view.
Odds and predictions correct at time of writing. Always check the latest prices on wagerbase before placing any bets.