Tools/Kelly Criterion

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Calculate the mathematically optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll. Supports full, half, and quarter Kelly.

Kelly fraction:
Recommended Bet Size
£41.67
4.17% of bankroll (Half Kelly)
Edge
+12.5%
Full Kelly
8.33%
EV per Bet
5.21
Ruin Risk
12348.22%
Growth Projection (100 bets)
Expected bankroll:£1473
Growth:+47.3%

The Kelly Criterion Formula

The Kelly Criterion calculates the fraction of your bankroll to wager: f* = (p × b - q) / b, where p = win probability, q = 1-p, and b = decimal odds - 1.

Half Kelly is recommended by most professionals. It gives ~75% of the growth rate of full Kelly but with far less variance and drawdown risk.