Tools/Value Bet Detector

Value Bet Detector

Compare bookmaker odds against your estimated fair odds to find value bets. See edge %, expected value, and Kelly-suggested stakes.

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1
BOOKIE
FAIR
Good ValueEdge: +6.4%EV: +£13.51/£100True: 54.1% vs Implied: 47.6%Stake: £30.71 (3.1%)
2
BOOKIE
FAIR
Marginal ValueEdge: +4.3%EV: +£8.33/£100True: 55.6% vs Implied: 51.3%Stake: £21.93 (2.2%)
3
BOOKIE
FAIR
No ValueEdge: -4.5%EV: £-7.89/£100True: 52.6% vs Implied: 57.1%

How to Estimate Fair Odds

Pinnacle closing lineThe sharpest market. Use Pinnacle's closing odds as your baseline fair price.
Sharp averageAverage the top 3-4 sharpest bookmakers (Pinnacle, Betfair, Matchbook).
Remove marginStrip the bookmaker's margin from odds. Our Margin Calculator can help.
Your own modelUse xG, Elo, or statistical models to estimate true probabilities.

What Is a Value Bet?

A value bet occurs when a bookmaker's odds are higher than the true probability of the outcome. In other words, the bookmaker is underestimating the chance of something happening.

Edge is the difference between the true probability and the bookmaker's implied probability. A positive edge means you have value — placing this bet repeatedly will be profitable long-term.

Finding value is the foundation of profitable betting. Even if an individual bet loses, consistently betting with positive expected value will generate profit over hundreds of bets. Use the Kelly Criterion to size your bets proportionally to your edge.

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