The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — Estoril actually create more (1.41 xG/game) than Arouca (0.96). Estoril at 2.85 could offer value. With 51 bookmakers unable to separate these two, the draw at 3.73 (27% implied) deserves serious consideration.
Best bet: Estoril to win at 2.85
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Monday 6 April at 17:45 | Primeira Liga
Arouca sit 12th in the Primeira Liga on 29 points. Their visitors Estoril are 7th on 37. Arouca's recent form reads WLLLW. Estoril come in with LWDLW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Arouca | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 7th |
| Points | 29 | 37 |
| Record | 8W 5D 14L | 10W 7D 10L |
| Goals Scored | 34 (1.3/game) | 48 (1.8/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 55 (2/game) | 44 (1.6/game) |
| Goal Difference | -21 | +4 |
| xG | 28.7 (0.96/game) | 42.2 (1.41/game) |
| xGA | 47.4 (1.58/game) | 46.4 (1.55/game) |
| Form | WLLLW | LWDLW |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca Win | 2.62 | 38% | 2.64 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.73 | 27% | 3.66 | 28% |
| Estoril Win | 2.85 | 35% | 2.87 | 36% |
Based on 51 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Arouca.
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