The Verdict
The xG doesn't fully support the market — AZ Alkmaar actually create more (1.9 xG/game) than Shakhtar Donetsk (1.22). AZ Alkmaar at 2.79 could offer value. With 34 bookmakers unable to separate these two, the draw at 3.60 (28% implied) deserves serious consideration.
Best bet: AZ Alkmaar to win at 2.79
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Thursday 9 April at 19:00 | Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 6th in the Conference League on 13 points. Their visitors AZ Alkmaar are 14th on 10. Shakhtar Donetsk's recent form reads DWWWL. AZ Alkmaar come in with DWWLW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 14th |
| Points | 13 | 10 |
| Record | 4W 1D 1L | 3W 1D 2L |
| Goals Scored | 10 (1.7/game) | 7 (1.2/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 5 (0.8/game) | 7 (1.2/game) |
| Goal Difference | +5 | +0 |
| xG | 9.8 (1.22/game) | 19 (1.9/game) |
| xGA | 8.2 (1.03/game) | 10.3 (1.03/game) |
| Form | DWWWL | DWWLW |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 2.75 | 36% | 2.75 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 28% | 3.60 | 28% |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 2.79 | 36% | 2.79 | 37% |
Based on 34 bookmakers. Agreement: 56% lean toward Shakhtar Donetsk.
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