The Verdict
Goals look likely — Arsenal average 2 scored and 0.7 conceded per game; Bournemouth: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. That's 3.5 combined goals per game. Arsenal have outscored their xG by 9.8 goals this season. That clinical edge is unsustainable — the goals will slow down.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Today's accumulators feature similar BTTS and over/under selections →
Place your bet at bet365 | Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits — Claim offer at bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits
Saturday 11 April at 11:30 | Premier League
Arsenal sit 1st in the Premier League on 70 points. Their visitors Bournemouth are 13th on 42. Arsenal's recent form reads WWWWD. Bournemouth come in with DDDDD.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Arsenal | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 13th |
| Points | 70 | 42 |
| Record | 21W 7D 3L | 9W 15D 7L |
| Goals Scored | 61 (2/game) | 46 (1.5/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 22 (0.7/game) | 48 (1.5/game) |
| Goal Difference | +39 | -2 |
| xG | 52.2 (1.74/game) | 49.2 (1.64/game) |
| xGA | 23.3 (0.78/game) | 51.7 (1.72/game) |
| Form | WWWWD | DDDDD |
xG Analysis
Arsenal are outscoring their xG by 9.8 this season (1.74 xG/game). Bournemouth underperform xG by 2.2 (1.64 xG/game).
Game State Performance
Arsenal's xG has dipped recently (1.9 last 3 vs 2.3 prior). Bournemouth's xG is trending upward (1.6 last 3 vs 0.9 prior).
Key Players
Arsenal
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz | 9 | 11.83 | 2.95 | 53 | 23 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 8 | 9.21 | 5.26 | 56 | 33 |
| Bukayo Saka | 6 | 8.94 | 11.58 | 67 | 25 |
| Leandro Trossard | 8 | 8.74 | 7.04 | 72 | 38 |
| Mikel Merino | 7 | 6.87 | 2.17 | 38 | 28 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Shots | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo | 11 | 14.55 | 6.61 | 126 | 37 |
| Evanilson | 10 | 13.71 | 1.92 | 73 | 31 |
| Dango Ouattara | 7 | 10.93 | 5.99 | 62 | 32 |
| Justin Kluivert | 12 | 10.44 | 5.51 | 63 | 34 |
| Marcus Tavernier | 3 | 6.41 | 5.2 | 57 | 29 |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | 1.51 | 66% | 1.48 | 67% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 20% | 4.87 | 21% |
| Bournemouth Win | 7.61 | 13% | 8.28 | 14% |
Based on 55 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Arsenal.
Place your bet at bet365 | Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits — Claim offer at bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 in Bet Credits
More from wagerbase
Premier League Predictions | Accumulators | Steam Moves | Model Wars | Odds Comparison | Player Props