The Verdict
The 1X2 market is razor-thin. When the odds are this close, draws happen more than the 29% implied probability suggests. The X at 3.46 has value. Regression watch: Aston Villa are converting at an unsustainable rate from 1.58 xG.
Best bet: Draw at 3.46
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Thursday 30 April at 19:00 | Europa League
Nottingham Forest sit 13th in the Europa League on 14 points. Their visitors Aston Villa are 2nd on 21. Nottingham Forest's recent form reads WLWWD. Aston Villa come in with WWWWW.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 2nd |
| Points | 14 | 21 |
| Record | 4W 2D 2L | 7W 0D 1L |
| Goals Scored | 15 (1.9/game) | 14 (1.8/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 7 (0.9/game) | 6 (0.8/game) |
| Goal Difference | +8 | +8 |
| xG | 27.4 (1.96/game) | 19 (1.58/game) |
| xGA | 12.1 (0.86/game) | 11.8 (0.99/game) |
| Form | WLWWD | WWWWW |
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa have 2 wins in 3 recent meetings: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa, Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
| Recent Results |
|---|
| Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa |
| Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest |
| Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win | 2.62 | 38% | 2.63 | 39% |
| Draw | 3.46 | 29% | 3.42 | 30% |
| Aston Villa Win | 3.04 | 33% | 3.06 | 34% |
Based on 49 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Nottingham Forest.
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