The Verdict
The xG tells a different story to the odds — Pisa create 1.03 xG per game vs Lecce's 0.76, yet the market favours the visitor. Home advantage plus xG superiority makes Pisa at 3.33 interesting. This has low-scoring written all over it. A combined 1.3 goals per game between these two points firmly toward Under 2.5.
Best bet: Pisa to win at 3.33
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Friday 1 May at 18:45 | Serie A
Pisa sit 20th in the Serie A on 18 points. Their visitors Lecce are 17th on 29. Pisa's recent form reads LLLLL. Lecce come in with DDLLL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Pisa | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20th | 17th |
| Points | 18 | 29 |
| Record | 2W 12D 20L | 7W 8D 19L |
| Goals Scored | 24 (0.7/game) | 22 (0.6/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 61 (1.8/game) | 46 (1.4/game) |
| Goal Difference | -37 | -24 |
| xG | 31 (1.03/game) | 22.9 (0.76/game) |
| xGA | 52.5 (1.75/game) | 47.2 (1.57/game) |
| Form | LLLLL | DDLLL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa Win | 3.33 | 30% | 3.43 | 31% |
| Draw | 3.19 | 31% | 3.14 | 32% |
| Lecce Win | 2.59 | 39% | 2.56 | 40% |
Based on 56 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Lecce.
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