WagerEdge analysis of this midweek's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 15 matches and identified 7 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
WagerEdge Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 489 |
| Record | 233W - 254L |
| Hit Rate | 47.6% |
| ROI | +4.5% |
| Season P&L | +22.20u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The midweek fixtures where WagerEdge sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Stoke vs Leicester
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Stoke 0.88 - 1.65 Leicester
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 20.2% | 51.0% | -30.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 30.3% | -6.4% |
| Leicester Win | 55.9% | 27.8% | +20.0% |
This is the standout value bet of the Sat 21 Feb card. The 2.53 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.4%.
Norwich vs Birmingham
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Norwich 1.90 - 1.01 Birmingham
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 58.6% | 40.8% | +17.7% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 30.3% | -8.7% |
| Birmingham Win | 19.9% | 38.9% | -19.0% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.91 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%.
West Brom vs Coventry
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: West Brom 1.49 - 1.11 Coventry
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 46.4% | 32.3% | +14.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 30.8% | -5.6% |
| Coventry Win | 28.4% | 46.5% | -18.1% |
Home advantage gives West Brom a 46.4% chance according to WagerEdge — well above what bet365 implies. Expected goals of 1.49 vs 1.11 suggest a balanced contest. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.0%.
Sheff Utd vs Sheff Wed
Kickoff: Sun 22 Feb, 12:00
xG: Sheff Utd 1.85 - 0.74 Sheff Wed
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd Win | 64.1% | 91.3% | -27.3% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 12.5% | +8.9% |
| Sheff Wed Win | 14.6% | 5.3% | +9.3% |
A +9.3% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. The model projects 1.85 xG for the hosts and 0.74 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 14.2%.
Middlesbrough vs Oxford Utd
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Middlesbrough 1.72 - 0.89 Oxford Utd
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 57.3% | 73.0% | -15.7% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.8% | -0.7% |
| Oxford Utd Win | 19.6% | 13.3% | +6.2% |
The model rates Oxford Utd's away chances at 19.6% — bet365's 13.3% is far too low. The 2.61 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%.
Millwall vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Millwall 1.41 - 0.98 Portsmouth
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 47.3% | 60.2% | -13.0% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.6% | -2.3% |
| Portsmouth Win | 26.5% | 21.1% | +5.4% |
bet365 are offering generous odds here. WagerEdge puts the true probability 5.4 points higher than the market implies. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.39 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.2%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Coventry vs Middlesbrough
Kickoff: Mon 16 Feb, 20:00
xG: Coventry 1.62 - 1.15 Middlesbrough
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry Win | 48.6% | 45.5% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 28.6% | -4.5% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 27.4% | 33.3% | -6.0% |
Coventry are rightfully favoured at 48.6% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.4%).
Blackburn vs Preston
Kickoff: Fri 20 Feb, 20:00
xG: Blackburn 1.40 - 0.82 Preston
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 51.0% | 53.8% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 30.8% | -4.1% |
| Preston Win | 22.3% | 25.6% | -3.4% |
The market has this one priced correctly. WagerEdge and bet365 see eye to eye on Blackburn's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15.5%).
Hull vs QPR
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Hull 1.27 - 0.91 QPR
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull Win | 45.1% | 41.7% | +3.4% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 31.3% | -3.3% |
| QPR Win | 26.9% | 35.5% | -8.5% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14.6%).
Swansea vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Swansea 1.34 - 1.10 Bristol City
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 42.5% | 47.6% | -5.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 30.3% | -3.8% |
| Bristol City Win | 31.0% | 31.3% | -0.2% |
No value to be found. Swansea at 42.5% is fairly priced by the market. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (12.5%).
Watford vs Derby
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Watford 1.14 - 0.90 Derby
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford Win | 41.6% | 48.8% | -7.2% |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.3% | -1.7% |
| Derby Win | 28.9% | 29.4% | -0.5% |
Watford are rightfully favoured at 41.6% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15.2%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the WagerEdge model. Odds are shown for reference only.
Charlton vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Tue 17 Feb, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 2.35 | 42.6% |
| Draw | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Portsmouth Win | 3.10 | 32.3% |
Bristol City vs Wrexham
Kickoff: Tue 17 Feb, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City Win | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Draw | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Wrexham Win | 3.40 | 29.4% |
Southampton vs Charlton
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 1.46 | 68.5% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Charlton Win | 5.75 | 17.4% |
Wrexham vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Ipswich Win | 2.01 | 49.8% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 4-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this midweek's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke vs Leicester | Away Win | 3.60 | +20.0% |
| Norwich vs Birmingham | Home Win | 2.45 | +17.7% |
| West Brom vs Coventry | Home Win | 3.10 | +14.1% |
| Sheff Utd vs Sheff Wed | Away Win | 19.00 | +9.3% |
Combined odds: 519.50
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by WagerEdge on February 16, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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