wagerbase analysis of this midweek's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 12 matches and identified 5 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
wagerbase Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 509 |
| Record | 237W - 270L |
| Hit Rate | 46.6% |
| ROI | +3.5% |
| Season P&L | +17.65u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The midweek fixtures where wagerbase sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Bristol City vs Coventry
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Bristol City 1.49 - 1.18 Coventry
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City Win | 44.8% | 28.6% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 28.6% | -3.6% |
| Coventry Win | 30.2% | 51.0% | -20.8% |
This is the standout value bet of the Sat 7 Mar card. The 2.67 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Derby vs Sheff Wed
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Derby 1.39 - 0.98 Sheff Wed
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 46.8% | 82.0% | -35.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 20.0% | +6.5% |
| Sheff Wed Win | 26.7% | 8.3% | +15.0% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.37 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.3%.
Ipswich vs Leicester
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Ipswich 1.66 - 1.49 Leicester
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Win | 42.2% | 68.5% | -26.3% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.0% | -2.0% |
| Leicester Win | 34.8% | 17.4% | +15.0% |
Leicester on the road at 34.8% looks like a gift at odds of 5.75. Expect an open game — the model projects 3.15 combined xG. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.3%.
Blackburn vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 12:30
xG: Blackburn 1.57 - 1.01 Portsmouth
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 50.8% | 41.7% | +9.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 33.3% | -8.7% |
| Portsmouth Win | 24.5% | 35.5% | -10.9% |
A +9.2% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. The model projects 1.57 xG for the hosts and 1.01 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%.
QPR vs Middlesbrough
Kickoff: Sun 8 Mar, 16:30
xG: QPR 1.33 - 1.25 Middlesbrough
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR Win | 39.0% | 30.3% | +8.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 29.4% | -3.6% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 35.2% | 51.0% | -15.9% |
QPR at home are being priced like underdogs by bet365, but wagerbase gives them a 39.0% win probability. The 2.58 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.3%.
Close Contests
Tight, evenly-matched fixtures where the market has it about right. No strong edges, but these are the games most likely to produce drama.
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Kickoff: Mon 2 Mar, 20:00
xG: Birmingham 1.11 - 1.22 Middlesbrough
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Win | 33.5% | 38.9% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.8% | -0.4% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 39.1% | 41.7% | -2.6% |
The bookmakers have this one nailed — our model agrees this is a genuine coin flip. Combined xG of 2.33 points to a standard Championship contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Ipswich vs Hull
Kickoff: Tue 3 Mar, 19:45
xG: Ipswich 1.99 - 0.82 Hull
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Win | 64.9% | 71.9% | -7.0% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 23.1% | -2.9% |
| Hull Win | 14.9% | 13.3% | +1.6% |
Ipswich are rightfully favoured at 64.9% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12.2%).
Preston vs Oxford Utd
Kickoff: Fri 6 Mar, 20:00
xG: Preston 1.37 - 0.97 Oxford Utd
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Win | 46.4% | 52.4% | -6.0% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 30.3% | -3.5% |
| Oxford Utd Win | 26.9% | 26.3% | +0.6% |
The market has this one priced correctly. wagerbase and bet365 see eye to eye on Preston's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.6%).
Hull vs Millwall
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 12:30
xG: Hull 1.03 - 0.79 Millwall
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull Win | 40.5% | 38.9% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 30.8% | +0.9% |
| Millwall Win | 27.9% | 40.0% | -12.1% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. The 1.82 xG line suggests it won't be a classic. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16.9%).
Sheff Utd vs West Brom
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Sheff Utd 1.43 - 0.75 West Brom
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd Win | 53.7% | 60.2% | -6.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.8% | -1.3% |
| West Brom Win | 19.9% | 21.1% | -1.2% |
No value to be found. Sheff Utd at 53.7% is fairly priced by the market. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16.5%).
Swansea vs Stoke
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Swansea 1.48 - 0.86 Stoke
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 52.2% | 51.0% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 31.3% | -5.5% |
| Stoke Win | 22.1% | 27.0% | -5.0% |
Swansea are rightfully favoured at 52.2% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14.6%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the wagerbase model. Odds are shown for reference only.
Charlton vs Birmingham
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Birmingham Win | 1.96 | 51.0% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 4-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this midweek's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City vs Coventry | Home Win | 3.50 | +15.0% |
| Ipswich vs Leicester | Away Win | 5.75 | +15.0% |
| Blackburn vs Portsmouth | Home Win | 2.40 | +9.2% |
| QPR vs Middlesbrough | Home Win | 3.30 | +8.7% |
Combined odds: 159.39
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by wagerbase on March 2, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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