wagerbase analysis of this midweek's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 23 matches and identified 7 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
wagerbase Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 511 |
| Record | 237W - 272L |
| Hit Rate | 46.4% |
| ROI | +3.1% |
| Season P&L | +15.65u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The midweek fixtures where wagerbase sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Leicester vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Leicester 2.04 - 0.82 Bristol City
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Win | 65.8% | 44.4% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 28.6% | -8.9% |
| Bristol City Win | 14.4% | 35.1% | -20.6% |
This is the standout value bet of the Tue 10 Mar card. The 2.86 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Sheff Wed vs Watford
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Sheff Wed 1.51 - 1.07 Watford
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Wed Win | 47.8% | 15.4% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 23.1% | +2.0% |
| Watford Win | 27.1% | 69.0% | -41.9% |
bet365 has Watford as favourites but wagerbase disagrees — the model paints a very different picture. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.58 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Leicester vs QPR
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Leicester 2.30 - 0.76 QPR
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Win | 72.3% | 47.6% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 16.8% | 30.8% | -14.0% |
| QPR Win | 10.9% | 31.3% | -20.4% |
Home advantage gives Leicester a 72.3% chance according to wagerbase — well above what bet365 implies. Expect an open game — the model projects 3.06 combined xG. A 2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.4%.
Sheff Wed vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Sheff Wed 1.42 - 1.87 Ipswich
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Wed Win | 29.4% | 7.7% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 16.7% | +5.3% |
| Ipswich Win | 48.6% | 87.0% | -38.4% |
A +15.0% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair at 3.29 xG. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.6%.
Birmingham vs Sheff Utd
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Birmingham 0.79 - 1.23 Sheff Utd
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Win | 24.0% | 45.5% | -21.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 29.4% | -0.5% |
| Sheff Utd Win | 47.0% | 35.5% | +11.6% |
The model rates Sheff Utd's away chances at 47.0% — bet365's 35.5% is far too low. The 2.02 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 16.6%.
Millwall vs Blackburn
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Millwall 1.08 - 0.86 Blackburn
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 40.7% | 64.1% | -23.4% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.6% | +1.9% |
| Blackburn Win | 28.8% | 18.2% | +10.7% |
bet365 are offering generous odds here. wagerbase puts the true probability 10.7 points higher than the market implies. Low xG of 1.94 points to a tight game where one goal could settle it. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15.9%.
Birmingham vs QPR
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Birmingham 1.25 - 1.07 QPR
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Win | 40.6% | 59.5% | -18.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.7% | +0.7% |
| QPR Win | 32.0% | 22.2% | +9.7% |
wagerbase sees clear value here at 9.7 percentage points above the market. Expected goals of 1.25 vs 1.07 suggest a balanced contest. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%.
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 12:30
xG: Middlesbrough 1.51 - 1.06 Bristol City
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 48.2% | 66.2% | -18.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.6% | -0.5% |
| Bristol City Win | 26.7% | 18.2% | +8.5% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. The model projects 1.51 xG for the hosts and 1.06 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Coventry vs Southampton
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 12:30
xG: Coventry 1.83 - 1.57 Southampton
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry Win | 44.6% | 56.8% | -12.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 26.7% | -4.7% |
| Southampton Win | 33.5% | 25.6% | +7.8% |
Southampton on the road at 33.5% looks like a gift at odds of 3.90. Combined xG of 3.40 means this is set up for goals. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.4%.
West Brom vs Southampton
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: West Brom 1.63 - 1.41 Southampton
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 43.1% | 37.7% | +5.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 28.6% | -5.2% |
| Southampton Win | 33.5% | 41.7% | -8.1% |
A +5.3% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. With 3.04 expected goals, both defences will be busy. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.7%.
Close Contests
Tight, evenly-matched fixtures where the market has it about right. No strong edges, but these are the games most likely to produce drama.
Norwich vs Sheff Utd
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Norwich 1.23 - 1.39 Sheff Utd
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 33.4% | 40.0% | -6.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 28.6% | -3.0% |
| Sheff Utd Win | 41.1% | 39.2% | +1.9% |
The bookmakers have this one nailed — our model agrees this is a genuine coin flip. Combined xG of 2.62 points to a standard Championship contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%.
Oxford Utd vs Blackburn
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Oxford Utd 1.14 - 1.07 Blackburn
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd Win | 37.5% | 37.7% | -0.3% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 31.3% | -2.9% |
| Blackburn Win | 34.2% | 39.2% | -5.0% |
Nothing separates these two sides on paper. Oxford Utd at 37.5% and Blackburn at 34.2% — take your pick. Combined xG of 2.21 points to a standard Championship contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Millwall vs Derby
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Millwall 1.09 - 0.77 Derby
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 43.3% | 52.4% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.4% | +1.6% |
| Derby Win | 25.7% | 25.6% | +0.1% |
Millwall are rightfully favoured at 43.3% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. The 1.86 xG line suggests it won't be a classic. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17.4%).
Portsmouth vs Swansea
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Portsmouth 1.54 - 1.19 Swansea
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth Win | 45.6% | 48.8% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.6% | -4.0% |
| Swansea Win | 29.8% | 30.3% | -0.5% |
The market has this one priced correctly. wagerbase and bet365 see eye to eye on Portsmouth's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.7%).
Stoke vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 20:00
xG: Stoke 1.12 - 1.72 Ipswich
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 25.2% | 25.0% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 27.8% | -4.5% |
| Ipswich Win | 51.5% | 55.2% | -3.7% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.0%).
Coventry vs Preston
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 20:00
xG: Coventry 1.76 - 0.91 Preston
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry Win | 57.6% | 70.4% | -12.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.1% | +1.8% |
| Preston Win | 19.6% | 16.7% | +2.9% |
No value to be found. Coventry at 57.6% is fairly priced by the market. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12.5%).
Stoke vs Watford
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Stoke 1.20 - 0.98 Watford
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 41.4% | 42.6% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 32.3% | -3.9% |
| Watford Win | 30.2% | 36.4% | -6.1% |
Stoke are rightfully favoured at 41.4% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.9%).
West Brom vs Hull
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: West Brom 1.35 - 0.77 Hull
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 50.8% | 48.8% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 30.8% | -3.3% |
| Hull Win | 21.7% | 30.3% | -8.6% |
The market has this one priced correctly. wagerbase and bet365 see eye to eye on West Brom's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16.5%).
Norwich vs Preston
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 15:00
xG: Norwich 1.88 - 1.10 Preston
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 55.8% | 64.1% | -8.3% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 27.0% | -5.1% |
| Preston Win | 22.2% | 19.0% | +3.2% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (10.3%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the wagerbase model. Odds are shown for reference only.
Wrexham vs Hull
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Hull Win | 3.80 | 26.3% |
Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 1.37 | 73.0% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Charlton Win | 7.50 | 13.3% |
Wrexham vs Swansea
Kickoff: Fri 13 Mar, 20:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 1.96 | 51.0% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Swansea Win | 3.50 | 28.6% |
Oxford Utd vs Charlton
Kickoff: Sat 14 Mar, 12:30
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd Win | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Draw | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Charlton Win | 3.30 | 30.3% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 4-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this midweek's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester vs Bristol City | Home Win | 2.25 | +15.0% |
| Leicester vs QPR | Home Win | 2.10 | +15.0% |
| Birmingham vs Sheff Utd | Away Win | 2.82 | +11.6% |
| Millwall vs Blackburn | Away Win | 5.50 | +10.7% |
Combined odds: 73.28
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by wagerbase on March 10, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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