WagerBase analysis of this midweek's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 12 matches and identified 3 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
WagerBase Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 499 |
| Record | 234W - 263L |
| Hit Rate | 46.9% |
| ROI | +3.4% |
| Season P&L | +16.95u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The midweek fixtures where WagerBase sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Middlesbrough vs Leicester
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
xG: Middlesbrough 1.19 - 1.49 Leicester
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 30.4% | 68.5% | -38.0% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 23.1% | +1.9% |
| Leicester Win | 44.6% | 16.7% | +15.0% |
This is the standout value bet of the Tue 24 Feb card. The 2.68 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.8%.
Norwich vs Sheff Wed
Kickoff: Wed 25 Feb, 19:45
xG: Norwich 2.08 - 1.29 Sheff Wed
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 55.9% | 85.5% | -29.6% |
| Draw | 20.6% | 15.4% | +5.2% |
| Sheff Wed Win | 23.6% | 7.7% | +15.0% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. With 3.37 expected goals, both defences will be busy. A 2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.6%.
Sheff Utd vs Coventry
Kickoff: Wed 25 Feb, 19:45
xG: Sheff Utd 1.59 - 0.84 Coventry
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd Win | 55.3% | 41.7% | +13.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.6% | -4.0% |
| Coventry Win | 20.2% | 36.4% | -16.2% |
Home advantage gives Sheff Utd a 55.3% chance according to WagerBase — well above what bet365 implies. Expected goals of 1.59 vs 0.84 suggest a balanced contest. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 14.3%.
Millwall vs Birmingham
Kickoff: Wed 25 Feb, 19:45
xG: Millwall 1.28 - 0.74 Birmingham
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 49.7% | 41.7% | +8.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 30.3% | -1.8% |
| Birmingham Win | 21.8% | 35.5% | -13.7% |
A +8.1% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. The model projects 1.28 xG for the hosts and 0.74 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 17.4%.
Stoke vs Oxford Utd
Kickoff: Wed 25 Feb, 20:00
xG: Stoke 1.28 - 0.98 Oxford Utd
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 43.4% | 56.8% | -13.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.6% | -1.0% |
| Oxford Utd Win | 29.0% | 22.2% | +6.7% |
The model rates Oxford Utd's away chances at 29.0% — bet365's 22.2% is far too low. The 2.26 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.6%.
Southampton vs QPR
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 20:00
xG: Southampton 2.33 - 1.10 QPR
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 65.0% | 58.5% | +6.5% |
| Draw | 18.2% | 26.3% | -8.1% |
| QPR Win | 16.8% | 23.1% | -6.3% |
bet365 are offering generous odds here. WagerBase puts the true probability 6.5 points higher than the market implies. With 3.43 expected goals, both defences will be busy. A 2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.7%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Blackburn vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
xG: Blackburn 1.29 - 0.98 Bristol City
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 43.8% | 44.4% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 30.8% | -3.3% |
| Bristol City Win | 28.7% | 32.3% | -3.5% |
Blackburn are rightfully favoured at 43.8% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.6%).
Hull vs Derby
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
xG: Hull 1.06 - 0.79 Derby
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull Win | 41.8% | 42.6% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 31.2% | 30.8% | +0.4% |
| Derby Win | 27.0% | 33.3% | -6.3% |
The market has this one priced correctly. WagerBase and bet365 see eye to eye on Hull's chances. The 1.85 xG line suggests it won't be a classic. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17.0%).
Swansea vs Preston
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
xG: Swansea 1.46 - 0.92 Preston
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 50.0% | 58.5% | -8.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.7% | -0.7% |
| Preston Win | 24.1% | 23.1% | +1.0% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.9%).
Watford vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
xG: Watford 1.21 - 1.66 Ipswich
| Outcome | WagerBase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford Win | 28.2% | 30.3% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 29.4% | -5.7% |
| Ipswich Win | 48.1% | 47.6% | +0.5% |
No value to be found. Ipswich at 48.1% is fairly priced by the market. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.1%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the WagerBase model. Odds are shown for reference only.
West Brom vs Charlton
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 1.96 | 51.0% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Charlton Win | 3.80 | 26.3% |
Wrexham vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Portsmouth Win | 3.60 | 27.8% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 3-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this midweek's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough vs Leicester | Away Win | 6.00 | +15.0% |
| Sheff Utd vs Coventry | Home Win | 2.40 | +13.6% |
| Millwall vs Birmingham | Home Win | 2.40 | +8.1% |
Combined odds: 34.56
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by WagerBase on February 24, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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