wagerbase analysis of this weekend's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 22 matches and identified 7 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
wagerbase Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 510 |
| Record | 237W - 271L |
| Hit Rate | 46.5% |
| ROI | +3.3% |
| Season P&L | +16.65u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The weekend fixtures where wagerbase sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Bristol City vs Coventry
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Bristol City 1.49 - 1.18 Coventry
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City Win | 44.8% | 28.6% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 27.8% | -2.8% |
| Coventry Win | 30.2% | 51.0% | -20.8% |
This is the standout value bet of the Sat 7 Mar card. The 2.67 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Derby vs Sheff Wed
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Derby 1.39 - 0.98 Sheff Wed
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 46.8% | 82.0% | -35.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 18.2% | +8.3% |
| Sheff Wed Win | 26.7% | 8.3% | +15.0% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.37 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.3%.
Ipswich vs Leicester
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Ipswich 1.66 - 1.49 Leicester
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Win | 42.2% | 69.0% | -26.8% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 22.2% | +0.8% |
| Leicester Win | 34.8% | 17.4% | +15.0% |
Leicester on the road at 34.8% looks like a gift at odds of 5.75. Expect an open game — the model projects 3.15 combined xG. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.3%.
Leicester vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Leicester 2.04 - 0.82 Bristol City
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Win | 65.8% | 45.5% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 28.6% | -8.9% |
| Bristol City Win | 14.4% | 33.3% | -18.9% |
A +15.0% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. The model projects 2.04 xG for the hosts and 0.82 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
Sheff Wed vs Watford
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Sheff Wed 1.51 - 1.07 Watford
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Wed Win | 47.8% | 12.5% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 22.2% | +2.9% |
| Watford Win | 27.1% | 73.0% | -45.9% |
Sheff Wed at home are being priced like underdogs by bet365, but wagerbase gives them a 47.8% win probability. The 2.58 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%.
QPR vs Middlesbrough
Kickoff: Sun 8 Mar, 16:30
xG: QPR 1.33 - 1.25 Middlesbrough
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR Win | 39.0% | 26.7% | +12.3% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 29.4% | -3.6% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 35.2% | 51.0% | -15.9% |
bet365 are offering generous odds here. wagerbase puts the true probability 12.3 points higher than the market implies. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.58 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.3%.
Blackburn vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 12:30
xG: Blackburn 1.57 - 1.01 Portsmouth
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 50.8% | 39.2% | +11.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 31.3% | -6.6% |
| Portsmouth Win | 24.5% | 37.0% | -12.5% |
This is the standout value bet of the Sat 7 Mar card. Expected goals of 1.57 vs 1.01 suggest a balanced contest. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%.
Birmingham vs QPR
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Birmingham 1.25 - 1.07 QPR
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Win | 40.6% | 59.5% | -18.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.7% | +0.7% |
| QPR Win | 32.0% | 22.2% | +9.7% |
The bookmakers are underrating this outcome by a significant margin. The model projects 1.25 xG for the hosts and 1.07 for the visitors. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%.
Coventry vs Preston
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 20:00
xG: Coventry 1.76 - 0.91 Preston
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry Win | 57.6% | 75.2% | -17.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 20.0% | +2.8% |
| Preston Win | 19.6% | 13.3% | +6.3% |
Preston on the road at 19.6% looks like a gift at odds of 7.50. The 2.67 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.5%.
West Brom vs Southampton
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: West Brom 1.63 - 1.41 Southampton
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 43.1% | 37.0% | +6.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 28.6% | -5.2% |
| Southampton Win | 33.5% | 42.6% | -9.0% |
A +6.0% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. With 3.04 expected goals, both defences will be busy. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.7%.
Hull vs Millwall
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 12:30
xG: Hull 1.03 - 0.79 Millwall
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull Win | 40.5% | 35.1% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 30.3% | +1.4% |
| Millwall Win | 27.9% | 44.4% | -16.6% |
Hull at home are being priced like underdogs by bet365, but wagerbase gives them a 40.5% win probability. Don't expect a goalfest — 1.82 combined xG suggests a defensive battle. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 16.9%.
Close Contests
Tight, evenly-matched fixtures where the market has it about right. No strong edges, but these are the games most likely to produce drama.
Norwich vs Sheff Utd
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Norwich 1.23 - 1.39 Sheff Utd
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 33.4% | 38.9% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 28.6% | -3.0% |
| Sheff Utd Win | 41.1% | 40.8% | +0.3% |
The bookmakers have this one nailed — our model agrees this is a genuine coin flip. Combined xG of 2.62 points to a standard Championship contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%.
Oxford Utd vs Blackburn
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
xG: Oxford Utd 1.14 - 1.07 Blackburn
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd Win | 37.5% | 36.4% | +1.1% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 31.3% | -2.9% |
| Blackburn Win | 34.2% | 40.8% | -6.6% |
Nothing separates these two sides on paper. Oxford Utd at 37.5% and Blackburn at 34.2% — take your pick. Combined xG of 2.21 points to a standard Championship contest. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Preston vs Oxford Utd
Kickoff: Fri 6 Mar, 20:00
xG: Preston 1.37 - 0.97 Oxford Utd
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Win | 46.4% | 49.8% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 30.3% | -3.5% |
| Oxford Utd Win | 26.9% | 26.7% | +0.2% |
Preston are rightfully favoured at 46.4% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.6%).
Sheff Utd vs West Brom
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Sheff Utd 1.43 - 0.75 West Brom
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd Win | 53.7% | 58.5% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.0% | -0.6% |
| West Brom Win | 19.9% | 22.2% | -2.4% |
The market has this one priced correctly. wagerbase and bet365 see eye to eye on Sheff Utd's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16.5%).
Swansea vs Stoke
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
xG: Swansea 1.48 - 0.86 Stoke
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 52.2% | 49.8% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 30.3% | -4.6% |
| Stoke Win | 22.1% | 27.0% | -5.0% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14.6%).
Millwall vs Derby
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Millwall 1.09 - 0.77 Derby
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 43.3% | 53.8% | -10.5% |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.4% | +1.6% |
| Derby Win | 25.7% | 25.0% | +0.7% |
No value to be found. Millwall at 43.3% is fairly priced by the market. The 1.86 xG line suggests it won't be a classic. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17.4%).
Portsmouth vs Swansea
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
xG: Portsmouth 1.54 - 1.19 Swansea
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth Win | 45.6% | 43.1% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 29.4% | -4.8% |
| Swansea Win | 29.8% | 35.5% | -5.7% |
Portsmouth are rightfully favoured at 45.6% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.7%).
Stoke vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 20:00
xG: Stoke 1.12 - 1.72 Ipswich
| Outcome | wagerbase | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 25.2% | 27.8% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 28.6% | -5.3% |
| Ipswich Win | 51.5% | 51.0% | +0.5% |
The market has this one priced correctly. wagerbase and bet365 see eye to eye on Ipswich's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (11.0%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the wagerbase model. Odds are shown for reference only.
Charlton vs Birmingham
Kickoff: Sat 7 Mar, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Birmingham Win | 2.10 | 47.6% |
Wrexham vs Hull
Kickoff: Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Hull Win | 3.80 | 26.3% |
Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Kickoff: Wed 11 Mar, 19:45
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 1.37 | 73.0% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Charlton Win | 7.50 | 13.3% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 4-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this weekend's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City vs Coventry | Home Win | 3.50 | +15.0% |
| Ipswich vs Leicester | Away Win | 5.75 | +15.0% |
| Leicester vs Bristol City | Home Win | 2.20 | +15.0% |
| QPR vs Middlesbrough | Home Win | 3.75 | +12.3% |
Combined odds: 166.03
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by wagerbase on March 6, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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