WagerEdge analysis of this weekend's Championship fixtures. Our model has analysed 12 matches and identified 3 value picks where the model sees a significant edge over bet365's prices.
WagerEdge Season Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Picks | 489 |
| Record | 233W - 254L |
| Hit Rate | 47.6% |
| ROI | +4.5% |
| Season P&L | +22.20u |
All picks are tracked in real-time on our Performance page. Every pick is logged automatically when the model identifies an edge of +5 percentage points or more.
Top Value Picks
The weekend fixtures where WagerEdge sees the biggest pricing errors from bet365.
Stoke vs Leicester
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Stoke 0.88 - 1.65 Leicester
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke Win | 20.2% | 48.8% | -28.5% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 29.4% | -5.5% |
| Leicester Win | 55.9% | 28.6% | +15.0% |
This is the standout value bet of the Sat 21 Feb card. The 2.53 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.4%.
West Brom vs Coventry
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: West Brom 1.49 - 1.11 Coventry
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom Win | 46.4% | 27.8% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 28.6% | -3.4% |
| Coventry Win | 28.4% | 51.0% | -22.6% |
bet365 has Coventry as favourites but WagerEdge disagrees — the model paints a very different picture. Neither a goalfest nor a bore draw on paper — 2.60 xG points to a competitive game. A 1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.0%.
Norwich vs Birmingham
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Norwich 1.90 - 1.01 Birmingham
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich Win | 58.6% | 39.2% | +15.0% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 29.4% | -7.8% |
| Birmingham Win | 19.9% | 38.9% | -19.0% |
Home advantage gives Norwich a 58.6% chance according to WagerEdge — well above what bet365 implies. Expected goals of 1.90 vs 1.01 suggest a balanced contest. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%.
Sheff Utd vs Sheff Wed
Kickoff: Sun 22 Feb, 12:00
xG: Sheff Utd 1.85 - 0.74 Sheff Wed
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd Win | 64.1% | 91.7% | -27.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 10.0% | +11.4% |
| Sheff Wed Win | 14.6% | 5.9% | +8.7% |
A +11.4% edge makes this one of the strongest plays on the slate. The model projects 1.85 xG for the hosts and 0.74 for the visitors. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 14.2%.
Middlesbrough vs Oxford Utd
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Middlesbrough 1.72 - 0.89 Oxford Utd
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough Win | 57.3% | 74.1% | -16.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 22.2% | +0.9% |
| Oxford Utd Win | 19.6% | 11.8% | +7.8% |
The model rates Oxford Utd's away chances at 19.6% — bet365's 11.8% is far too low. The 2.61 combined xG line suggests a typical Championship encounter. A 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%.
Avoid — Market Has It Right
Fixtures where bet365's pricing aligns with our model. No value to be found here — the bookmaker has priced these accurately.
Blackburn vs Preston
Kickoff: Fri 20 Feb, 20:00
xG: Blackburn 1.40 - 0.82 Preston
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 51.0% | 49.8% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 30.3% | -3.6% |
| Preston Win | 22.3% | 26.7% | -4.4% |
Blackburn are rightfully favoured at 51.0% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15.5%).
Hull vs QPR
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Hull 1.27 - 0.91 QPR
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull Win | 45.1% | 44.4% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 30.3% | -2.4% |
| QPR Win | 26.9% | 32.3% | -5.3% |
The market has this one priced correctly. WagerEdge and bet365 see eye to eye on Hull's chances. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14.6%).
Swansea vs Bristol City
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 12:30
xG: Swansea 1.34 - 1.10 Bristol City
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 42.5% | 47.6% | -5.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 29.4% | -2.9% |
| Bristol City Win | 31.0% | 30.3% | +0.7% |
bet365's pricing is spot-on here — our model's probabilities are within a couple of points across the board. Most likely scoreline: 1-1 (12.5%).
Millwall vs Portsmouth
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Millwall 1.41 - 0.98 Portsmouth
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall Win | 47.3% | 55.9% | -8.6% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.6% | -2.3% |
| Portsmouth Win | 26.5% | 23.1% | +3.4% |
No value to be found. Millwall at 47.3% is fairly priced by the market. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13.2%).
Watford vs Derby
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
xG: Watford 1.14 - 0.90 Derby
| Outcome | WagerEdge | bet365 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford Win | 41.6% | 46.5% | -5.0% |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.3% | -0.8% |
| Derby Win | 28.9% | 30.3% | -1.4% |
Watford are rightfully favoured at 41.6% and bet365 agrees. No edge to exploit. Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15.2%).
Outside Model Coverage
These fixtures feature teams not currently in the WagerEdge model. Odds are shown for reference only.
Southampton vs Charlton
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 1.51 | 66.2% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| Charlton Win | 5.75 | 17.4% |
Wrexham vs Ipswich
Kickoff: Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
| Outcome | bet365 Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Ipswich Win | 2.15 | 46.5% |
Accumulator Suggestion
Our 3-fold accumulator combines the strongest edges from this weekend's fixtures:
| Match | Selection | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke vs Leicester | Away Win | 3.50 | +15.0% |
| West Brom vs Coventry | Home Win | 3.60 | +15.0% |
| Norwich vs Birmingham | Home Win | 2.55 | +15.0% |
Combined odds: 32.13
Every selection in this acca is backed by a model edge of at least +5%. Accumulators carry higher risk than singles, but when every leg has genuine value, the expected return compounds. All individual picks are tracked as 1u flat stake singles on the Performance page.
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Generated by WagerEdge on February 20, 2026. Model trained on 14 February 2026 with 233 backtested picks. View full performance track record.
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