The Verdict
Arouca have been finishing above their xG all season. The surplus is a warning sign for backers.
Best bet: Alverca or Under 2.5 Goals
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Friday 24 April at 19:15 | Primeira Liga
Alverca sit 10th in the Primeira Liga on 35 points. Their visitors Arouca are 11th on 35. Alverca's recent form reads LWWLD. Arouca come in with WLWWL.
Season Numbers
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 11th |
| Points | 35 | 35 |
| Record | 9W 8D 13L | 10W 5D 15L |
| Goals Scored | 32 (1.1/game) | 38 (1.3/game) |
| Goals Conceded | 48 (1.6/game) | 58 (1.9/game) |
| Goal Difference | -16 | -20 |
| xG | 36.8 (1.23/game) | 29.3 (0.98/game) |
| xGA | 39 (1.3/game) | 47.4 (1.58/game) |
| Form | LWWLD | WLWWL |
The Odds
| Outcome | Consensus | Implied Prob | Pinnacle | Sharp (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca Win | 2.46 | 41% | 2.45 | 41% |
| Draw | 3.49 | 29% | 3.37 | 30% |
| Arouca Win | 3.26 | 31% | 3.39 | 31% |
Based on 51 bookmakers. Agreement: 100% lean toward Alverca.
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